The last Saturday of February was important for some Kentucky Derby hopefuls, as Greatest Honour and Essential Quality both obliged with solid wins in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. However, a third colt – one that may be just as talented as those two – was also stretching his legs on February 27.
Caddo River, like Essential Quality trained by Brad Cox, breezed five furlongs in 1.00.6 at Fair Grounds that morning. A week earlier, the son of Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun had clocked 59.60 over the same distance, recording the day's joint fastest of 41 works over the trip. That was his third, and by far sharpest, breeze since he captured the listed Smarty Jones Stakes over a mile at Oaklawn Park on January 22.
Caddo River was given a fourth workout doing five panels again last Saturday, this time covering the distance nicely in 1.00.2.
Many who witnessed his Smarty Jones performance marked him down as a potential superstar, and the colt will get a chance to underline that assessment on Saturday, when he is back at Oaklawn for the G2 Rebel Stakes, probably locking horns with another big Derby hope, the Bob Baffert-trained G2 San Vicente winner Concert Tour.
Of course, we were still more than three months from the Run for the Roses when Caddo River demolished the field in the Smarty Jones, and prep races as early as that are seldom significant. But there’s a strong chance Caddo River’s powerful win around two turns will be an exception.
Partnered by Florent Geroux, he was sent straight to the lead, given a no-nonsense ride and, racing with great zest, the further he got into the race, the better Caddo River looked. Passing the three-quarter pole he had opened up by over three lengths, and he quickened again at the top of the lane to put the race to bed in a matter of strides.
He cruised to a 10¼-length win over Cowan, who was 7¼ lengths in front of the third-placed Big Thorn (an easy winner of a minor stakes at two but well beaten in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes three weeks before the Smarty Jones).
True, Caddo River was odds-on to win the Smarty Jones and Cowan was a clear second favorite, but Caddo River definitely had more up his sleeve and the gap between first and third might easily have been 20 lengths. We are talking jump racing margins here, in a mile race.
Riyadh form
In cases like this it’s always worthwhile to ponder on how badly the beaten horses could have run. Cowan’s previous and subsequent starts indicate that he is by no means ordinary. Last year, he grabbed second both in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and the listed Springboard Mile. Cowan’s outing a month after he was made to look second rate by Caddo River seems even more interesting.
He was shipped to Riyadh, where he took part in the Saudi Derby, like the Smarty Jones contested over a mile on a fast dirt track. The race was won by Japan’s Pink Kamehameha, and the only rival capable of giving him a fight was Cowan, who finished strongly after a tardy start to go down by just three parts of a length. He was 1¾ lengths better than the John Gosden-trained New Treasure, who took third in front of the two favorites, Godolphin duo Rebel’s Romance and Soft Whisper.
New Treasure was a G3 winner for Jim Bolger in Ireland last year, and he is officially rated 104. Rebel’s Romance was coming off a win in the UAE 2000 Guineas Trial at Meydan, where his official handicap mark is 102, 6lbs lower than Soft Whisper, a smart filly who had strolled home by 7 lengths in the listed UAE 1000 Guineas on her previous start.
Pink Kamehameha is harder to get a grip on. He was a much improved winner at Riyadh, and it was probably the switch from turf to dirt that did the trick for trainer Hideyuki Mori’s new star, who has been pegged in on 112 by Dubai’s handicapper ahead of a crack at the UAE Derby on March 27.
Perhaps 112 is a touch high, but the best of the supporting actors in the Saudi Derby seem to back up the form. The main challengers from Europe and Dubai were not top class, but they were no plodders either, and Cowan beat them.
Dubai’s handicapper has him on 111. Is Cowan worthy of such a mark?
Well, even if he isn’t and we assume that he ran to no more than, say, 95, against Caddo River, the latter still looks scarily good for a listed winner in mid-winter.
If we assume that Cowan ran to 100 at Oaklawn, well, then Caddo River enters freaky territory. He was at least 20lbs better than Cowan in the Smarty Jones, and there is certainly more to come from Brad Cox’s ‘second’ Derby horse. Capable of carrying his speed comfortably around two turns, he is not dissimilar to Smarty Jones himself, a champion who took the Rebel/Arkansas Derby route successfully into the Kentucky Derby.
Caddo River, whose dam Pangburn was beaten a nose by Sarah Sis in the G3 Iowa Oaks over 8½ furlongs, appears to be on the same path. That Brad Cox will be keen to keep him and Essential Quality apart through the months of March and April is easy to comprehend – though it’s somewhat harder to guess which one he may be trying to protect.