International racing expert Geir Stabell with his ranking of the three-year-olds currently at the centre of conversations ahead of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 4, 2024
Any self-respecting guide to the Kentucky Derby must address the elephant in the room: a certain Bob Baffert.
The six-time Derby-winning trainer has no fewer than 18 nominations to the Triple Crown – but as it stands, none of them will be running on the first Saturday in May as Baffert is still prohibited from having runners at any track operated by Churchill Downs Inc. following the Medina Spirit controversy.
In previous seasons, Baffert’s horses have been transferred to other barns to circumvent the ban – but not this time, when they are staying put. Which is highly significant indeed, as the unbeaten Nysos would surely be clear favourite in any Kentucky Derby future book.
Even without the Baffert issue, the picture is far from clear following the defeat of last year’s champion juvenile Fierceness on his seasonal debut.
Here, then, is our attempt to identify the leading contenders at this stage, with the ante-post prices currently available to those with access to European bookmakers’ lists.
1. FIERCENESS trained by Todd Pletcher
b c City Of Light - Nonna Bella (Stay Thirsty)
Odds 14-1
Disappointing as it was on paper for last year’s champion two-year-old to be well beaten at 1-5 on his reappearance in the Holy Bull, I’m willing to draw a line through that laboured third-placed effort behind Hades.
After Fierceness was squeezed at the gate, a pedestrian pace turned the G3 event into a sprint, and it could hardly have been more different from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where the winner clocked a fast time.
The Holy Bull splits went at 25.03s, 50.53s, 1:14.25 and 1:39.28 – almost two seconds slower for the mile than Real Macho's allowance time on the same card. The Holy Bull reminded me of the 2007 Blue Grass, when a similar scenario enabled Dominican to pip Street Sense, who turned the form around to the tune of 17¾ lengths in Louisville.
Fierceness crushed Muth and Locked at the Breeders' Cup, where he was a 6½-length winner, and deserves to be top ranked still. That remains the best form in the book and losing a prep has never been the end of the world.
2. SIERRA LEONE Chad Brown
db c Gun Runner - Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon)
Odds 16-1
Son of Gun Runner (third to Nyquist in 2016) out of a Malibu Moon mare who took the G1 Alcibiades Stakes at two but failed to win at three.
Representing the Coolmore team, this $2.3m colt looked the likely winner of the G2 Remsen Stakes when he came from well off the pace to pass the pace-setter Dornoch a furlong out, but Dornoch fought back to win narrowly.
Up in grade that day after a winning debut four weeks earlier, Sierra Leone understandably tired in the closing stages after making up a lot of ground from being detached early on.
Given that the more-experienced Dornoch enjoyed a ground-saving trip on the lead, Sierra Leone is fancied to reverse the form when they meet again.
3. LOCKED Todd Pletcher
db c Gun Runner - Luna Rosa (Malibu Moon)
Odds 16-1
Another to represent dual Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, Locked was sent off favourite for the BC Juvenile after winning the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
He had to fight for that Keeneland win from The Wine Steward (3-for-3 before the race, coming off a black type stakes win in the Funny Cide at Saratoga in August) – and barnmate Fierceness proved much better at Santa Anita.
Locked nevertheless posted an eye-catching effort in third, staying on from the back in a promising display. This is a smart performer and he will improve given a stamina tests, though his off-the-pace style is not ideal for a Kentucky Derby.
Missed intended return in Sam F Davis last weekend after spiking a fever.
4. DORNOCH Danny Gargan
b c Good Magic - Puca (Big Brown)
Odds 16-1
No winner of the Remsen Stakes has gone on to with the Kentucky Derby since Thunder Gulch in 1995 and, although they pulled well clear, Dornoch and Sierra Leone did not create the most enthusiastic of headlines when they finished a nose apart at the wire of last year's edition.
However, subsequent results have franked the form. Drum Roll Please, beaten 4¾ lengths in third, won the Jerome Stakes by nearly four lengths from El Grande O, who went on to be beaten a whisker in the G3 Withers.
It's also worth noting that El Grande O was a head behind Breeders' Futurity runner-up The Wine Steward in the Funny Cide Stakes. All of which suggests the Remsen was a decent enough race.
5. TIMBERLAKE Brad Cox
b c Into Mischief - Pin Up (Lookin At Lucky)
Odds 40-1
Timberlake produced a good performance in the Champagne Stakes, then wasted energy by pulling hard when fourth in the BC Juvenile; not bad under the circumstances. The track was sloppy when he won the Champagne easily from General Partner (sixth at the Breeders' Cup) and wet-track form is tricky to assess, but having won in the slop gives experience and can be an advantage for a three-year-old taking in vital preps en route to Churchill Downs.
There are worse options about and anyone fancying a sporting bet can get 40-1 with European bookmakers.
6. HADES Joe Orseno
b g Awesome Slew - The Shady Lady (Quality Road)
Odds 20-1
While taking the view that the pace turned the Holy Bull into a dubious prep, I still respect Hades, who won readily from Domestic Product and Fierceness. This late bloomer has progressed nicely, winning his three races to date, and he should improve again. His rider orchestrated a slow pace in the Holy Bull, and it worked out beautifully.
What made me take note, though, was the way Hades galloped out; full of energy after passing the winning post. Perhaps this gelding won't mind longer trips?
7. TRACK PHANTOM Steve Asmussen
b c Quality Road - Miss Sunset (Into Mischief)
Odds 14-1
Taking the Epicenter route, Track Phantom won the Gun Runner Stakes and G3 Lecomte Stakes over a mile and sixteenth at Fair Grounds, where he made all for an easy win over Nash in the latter contest.
The way he finished his race suggested that he possesses stamina – something it would have been hard to glean from his pedigree. Quality Road is the sire of Pegasus winners City Of Light and National Treasure, and Track Phantom's dam was a sprinter. His second dam, Tuscan Sunset – a daughter of the speedy Trippi – won three low-grade races over 4½ furlongs. Could Track Phantom outrun his pedigree and master ten furlongs at Churchill Downs? First comes the Risen Star at the weekend.
8. FOREVER YOUNGYoshito Yahagi (Jap)
b c Real Steel - Forever Darling (Congrats)
Odds 16-1
A record 47 horses from Japan featured among a total of 346 nominations for the Triple Crown when initial entries were released last week. Current leader of Japan’s three-year-old dirt crop is this son of Dubai Turf winner Real Steel, unbeaten in three starts for globe-trotting pioneer Yoshito Yahagi, who enjoyed that historic Breeders’ Cup double at Del Mar in 2021.
A seven-length winner of a G1 on Japan’s second-tier NAR (National Association of Racing circuit) in December, Forever Young is pro tem leader of the annual ‘Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby’.
He is due next in the $1.5m Saudi Derby in Riyadh on February 24. Japanese horses won the first two runnings, while Derma Sotogake was third in 2023 before finishing sixth in last year’s Kentucky Derby and then second in the BC Classic.
9. MYSTIK DAN Ken McPeek
b c Goldencents - Ma'am (Colonel John)
Odds 20-1
Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes last weekend was fascinating. Otto The Conqueror looked good on the lead up to the seventh furlong in the G3 contest and Just Steel looked good when leading into the stretch, but then came 11-1 shot Mystik Dan, finishing fast hugging the rail to win by eight lengths.
Most observers would say 'where did that come from?' Where, indeed. Mystik Dan, only fifth to Catching Freedom after setting the pace in a Listed stakes at the same venue on New Year's Day (when Just Steel was second), jumped up big time in the Southwest. Running a half-furlong further, he was held up and he enjoyed a fine ride over the wet track. You’d love to see him repeat the form, though, before going overboard.
10. DOMESTIC PRODUCTChad Brown
b c Practical Joke - Goods And Service (Paynter)
Odds: not listed
With Hades and Fierceness both on our list, it's hard not to consider Domestic Product, who split those two when staying on for second in the Holy Bull. That was a big step up for the son of Practical Joke. Out of an unraced daughter of Haskell winner/Belmont runner-up Paynter, he comes from the family of prolific turf winner Cherokee Queen, who won a G3 over nine furlongs.
11. HALL OF FAME Steve Asmussen
ch c Gun Runner - Flag Day (Giant's Causeway)
Odds 33-1
Another Coolmore-owned son of Gun Runner, out of an unraced half-sister to Street Ready, a winning turf miler who ran second in the G3 Transylvania Stakes.
A $1.4m price tag did not look a bargain when this colt lost to a 38-1 shot first time out at Churchill Downs in November. He met a troubled run, however, and went onto break his maiden in some style 25 days later over 8½ furlongs at Fair Grounds, running out a comfortable 10¼-length winner eased down from an overmatched field.
This was a commanding effort and he joins Asmussen-trained stablemate Track Phantom in this weekend’s Risen Star; his sire won the G2 event in 2016 before coming third at Churchill Downs.
12. KNIGHTSBRIDGE Bill Mott
db c Nyquist - Tybun Brook (Bernardini)
Odds 25-1
Godolphin colt is half-brother to high-class sprinter-miler Speaker's Corner; unraced dam is a daughter of Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Round Pond, and thus a half-sister to Long River (a G1 winner over 10 furlongs in Dubai).
Knightsbridge has raced just once but it could hardly have been any better as he won a seven-furlong maiden at Churchill Downs, where he powered home by 10½ lengths after travelling strongly close to the pace. Taking the lead at the top of the stretch, the son of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist turned that race into a procession. The further he went the better he looked, and his gallop-out was strong.
Admittedly, he probably did not beat much, but he was visually impressive and his time was good.
Bob Baffert’s three-year-olds
They might not be eligible for Churchill Downs, but there is seemingly no shortage of three-year-old talent in Team Baffert, which is more than likely to be involved further down the Triple Crown line in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
‘He is a really good colt’ – Nysos charges to top of three-year-old charts
The unbeaten Nysos looks Baffert’s number one. Although the son of 2016 Kentucky Derby victor Nysos looked all speed in the G3 Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar, he won the the G3 Robert B Lewis Stakes in the manner of a horse who will stretch out.
Anyone looking to pick holes, though, will point out that was sent off a 1-10 chance – and California lacks strength in depth these days.
The runner-up spot that day was filled by Nysos’s Baffert-trained stablemate Wine Me Up, who was 7½ lengths behind the winner.
At two, Wine Me Up was 3¾ lengths behind Muth – another Baffert trainee – in the G1 American Pharoah, hopelessly beaten at the Breeders' Cup and fourth of five behind another barnmate, Wynstock, in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Wynstock was last behind Mystik Dan in the G3 Southwest – an inconclusive run.
So while Nysos could hardly be winning more easily, the form might – might – be questionable. Then again, he has won three races by an aggregate margin of nearly 27 lengths, and he posted the best Beyer speed figure by a three-year-old so far this year in the Lewis.
Muth is another highly-rated individual who cost $2m at Ocala last March. Outstayed by Fierceness when second in the BC Juvenile, he returned with an easy win in the G2 San Vicente where he was 2-5 to beat five rivals. He duly won comfortably from Pilot Commander, Baffert's second string.
Also in the mix are Maymun and Imagination, who fought out a thrilling stretch battle in a first-level allowance contest over a mile on Sunday’s card at Santa Anita.
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