On some high profile racedays a horse running on the undercard steals the show – and becomes the horse on everybody's lips. It happened on Pegasus day at Gulfstream Park.
Knicks Go was solid in the main feature, proving effective over nine furlongs (and climbing to world #25 as a result), and Colonel Liam shone on turf, signalling that he may be capable of dominating his division in the U.S. But preceding their runs, an unraced colt named Prevalence produced the day’s most visually impressive performance. Could he be the second colt to break the ‘Apollo jinx’ by winning the Kentucky Derby without juvenile racing experience?
Triple Crown winner Justify managed the feat in 2018, the first to do it for 136 years - when Apollo won the great race.
Comparing Prevalence, Godolphin’s exciting Medaglia d’Oro colt, with Justify is premature, of course. Yet first-time starters simply don’t come much better than this (see video below). And Prevalence is already a 14/1 shot with some international bookmakers to give his owners a win in the Run for the Roses at last.
Trained by Brendan Walsh, the colt faced some well-bred rivals in the 12-runner maiden over seven furlongs. Among them was the Chad Brown trainee Stage Raider, a half-brother to Justify. He was also making his debut, sporting the silks of his breeder, John D Gunther, who had turned down $950,000 for the colt at the 2019 Keeneland September Sales.
With Shadwell's million-dollar purchase Ghazaaly, and Traveller, a half-brother to Eight Rings, also making their debuts, it was a tricky race for horseplayers.
Prevalence was 7/1 as the gates opened. About a minute later, when he had two of the seven furlongs to cover, the colt looked more like a 1/7 shot. He won hard held by 8½ lengths from Stage Raider, who beat Ghazaaly by half a length for second.
The standard question after such wins is ‘what did he beat’. In this case, as so often, the answer is ‘hard to say’. After all, the first four were all without experience. Is it likely that his three nearest pursuers are stars? No, of course not. Is it likely that they are moderate? No again, but it’s worth noting that none of these fashionably related colts went off favorite. The slight betting choice, at 7/2, was Edward Plesa’s Holy Redeemer, making his fourth attempt at becoming a winner – and that in itself seemed a bit puzzling.
Does this tell us that the big boys were not unleashing potentially powerful guns in this particular race? It’s rare to see a Gulfstream maiden with a bunch of runners representing top teams, and none of them being the chalk. In fact, it has become the norm to see youngsters trained by the likes of Pletcher and Brown to be heavily overbet in such races. Not this time.
When it comes to Brendan Walsh’s juveniles, however, one only needs to go back to his top-class juvenile Maxfield’s debut to realize the difference. Maxfield won at 10/1 that day – completely overlooked in the betting. The way Prevalence ran indicated that he too is rather special. He beat what was put in front of him with ridiculous ease.
Part of the early pace, he took charge around the bend and quickened right away turning for home. The clock backs up the impression that he is high class. He won the race in 1.23.0. Three races later, Pacific Gale won the G2 Inside Information Stakes in 1.22.6. She was by no means geared down. Bear in mind that Prevalence was never off the bridle. He could certainly have covered the distance quicker than 1.22.6 if asked to.
Not many horses run to this level first time out.
Family of Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner
Where does he go next, and how far will he stay? Suggesting the answer to the first question is the easier part, as one would assume that a plan pointing toward the G1 Florida Derby beckons.
How much stamina he may possess is a much tougher call. He showed good speed, perhaps too much to be marked down as a Kentucky Derby type. On the other hand, Prevalence produced a nice turn of foot coming into the home stretch and he finished really strongly. Pricking his ears while passing the post, he looked like a runner well capable of going further – but how much further? Looking at his dam's side, we find more speed than stamina. Perhaps we have just seen a high-class miler.
Having sired the likes of Rachel Alexandra, Songbird, Elate and Talismanic, Medaglia d’Oro is a stallion capable of providing stamina. Prevalence’s dam, the Ghostzapper daughter Enrichment, is best known for having produced Estihdaaf, who won the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas in a career that was cut short after he finished tailed off on his subsequent start.
Prevalence is probably every bit as good. Their second dam, Sahara Gold (by Seeking the Gold), was a G2 winner. A daughter of Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Desert Stormer, she did well at stud, producing smart turf performers Better Lucky and Final Frontier, like Enrichment also by Ghostzapper.
Better Lucky won two G1 mile events - the Matriarch and the First Lady Stakes. Clearly versatile, she was also a close second in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint. Final Frontier captured the listed Belmont Park Turf Sprint. In addition, Sahara Gold was the dam of Sahara Heat (by A P Indy), a winner of the G3 Marine Stakes over 8½ furlongs at Woodbine as a 3-year-old.
So there's not much stamina in the bottom half of Prevalence’s pedigree, which may count against his chances of getting 1¼ miles. Whether lack of juvenile racing counts as much against him is another matter. The times are changing and perhaps Prevalence will change a few more things over the next few months.
For now, he fits best in the ‘could be anything’ file.