Why Florent Geroux is ‘Boss of the Moss’ in the U.S.

Florent Geroux is ranked 11 on dirt in the U.S., but he’s a clear #1 on turf, according to the TRC Global Rankings. Photo: breederscup.com

French-born jockey Florent Geroux stole another good race on turf when partnering Al’s Gal to victory over Suffused – who came off as the better horse on the day – in the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor Stakes at Woodbine on Sunday.

Positioned close to a steady pace, @flothejock got another effort out of the Mike Maker-trained 5-year-old to score by a nose. This was another brick in the wall of a breakout season for Geroux, who is the TRC Global Rankings #8 jockey in the freshly minted edition of our standings.

Leaving Woodbine exploits aside, we thought it might be informative to see where Geroux has made a mark against his contemporaries in the U.S. So, we cast the powerful TRC algorithm on U.S. data only in order to rank riders Stateside.

Here are the results for all races, using three years of results going back in time from the latest rankings cut-off last Sunday on all surfaces:

Overall ranking for U.S.-based riders (U.S. data only)

Rank

Dirt

Turf

Name

Rnrs

Runs

IV

tRPR

G1 wins

G2 wins

G3.wins

Pts

1

1

2

Javier Castellano

285

495

1.60

93.71

33

33

42

1068

2

11

1

Florent Geroux

128

203

1.50

91.99

13

8

25

1045

3

3

4

John R Velazquez

274

461

1.29

92.80

31

17

30

1028

4

2

11

Mike E Smith

206

344

1.33

91.09

24

23

16

1020

5

7

7

Jose L Ortiz

158

271

1.17

91.64

7

16

23

1007

 

6

8

Gary Stevens

125

219

1.27

90.10

11

21

10

1007

7

4

12

Victor Espinoza

143

249

1.31

89.33

24

17

7

1006

8

8

5

Joel Rosario

253

407

1.20

90.90

19

25

19

1005

9

13

3

Irad Ortiz Jr

200

342

1.11

91.57

13

16

22

1000

10

8

8

Joe Bravo

152

237

1.21

89.56

12

14

15

997

Javier Castellano is the #1 rider using only U.S. data, winning more Grade 1s, Grade 2s and Grade 3s than any of his colleagues and owning a lead of 23 points over Geroux. Castellano is a true dual-surface threat, as the numbers prove, but he is most dominant on dirt as we can see here:

Dirt-only ranking for U.S.-based riders (U.S. data only)

Rank

Turf

All

Name

Rnrs

Runs

IV

tRPR

G1 wins

G2 wins

G3.wins

Pts

1

2

1

Javier Castellano

170

285

1.61

93.49

23

23

24

1092

2

11

4

Mike E Smith

117

187

1.39

91.43

19

15

8

1047

3

4

3

John R Velazquez

156

263

1.20

92.72

20

12

14

1028

4

12

7

Victor Espinoza

70

125

1.26

90.11

19

7

2

1019

5

68

12

Martin Garcia

72

131

1.28

88.47

10

9

11

1011

6

8

5

Gary Stevens

60

113

1.22

89.66

11

7

7

1010

7

7

5

Jose L Ortiz

96

181

1.17

90.05

6

12

15

1006

8

8

10

Joe Bravo

70

109

1.16

88.05

9

6

7

991

 

5

8

Joel Rosario

135

220

1.04

90.51

12

14

5

991

10

10

11

Rafael Bejarano

94

142

1.07

89.68

8

11

6

989

Castellano holds an advantage of 45 points over a salty veteran in Mike Smith, with John Velazquez and Victor Espinoza some way back in third and fourth. Notice it is the same dozen-or-so riders who head the tables on dirt and overall, exhibiting the dominance of America’s traditional racing surface in determining the overall standings.

Geroux is ranked #11 on dirt and scores plenty of good winners on that surface, but there is no doubt that the lawn is his metier as the following U.S. turf-only numbers prove:

Turf-only ranking for U.S.-based riders (U.S. data only)

Rank

Dirt

All

Name

Rnrs

Runs

IV

tRPR

G1 wins

G2 wins

G3.wins

Pts

1

11

2

Florent Geroux

63

98

1.63

89.42

8

1

19

1036

2

1

1

Javier Castellano

117

203

1.33

89.56

10

9

18

1008

3

13

9

Irad Ortiz Jr

75

130

1.30

89.47

7

7

12

1004

4

3

3

John R Velazquez

124

190

1.20

88.84

10

5

15

990

5

8

8

Joel Rosario

116

176

1.25

87.62

6

10

14

987

 

16

13

Julien R Leparoux

108

168

1.17

88.84

4

6

15

987

7

7

5

Jose L Ortiz

61

89

0.99

88.66

1

4

8

968

8

8

10

Joe Bravo

81

126

1.05

87.10

3

7

8

963

 

6

5

Gary Stevens

66

102

1.13

85.89

0

14

3

963

10

10

11

Rafael Bejarano

80

112

1.07

85.79

2

9

6

957

Notice that, though Castellano is still superior in the aggregate, we don’t have any doubt who deserves the #1. Geroux’s win-rate (captured by his regressed IV or ‘Impact Value’) is much superior and he has a very similar tRPR, which is ‘translated or time-decayed Racing Post Rating mean’. (If you are used to looking at sports team rankings, think of IV as winning percentage and tRPR as strength of schedule.)

TRC Global Rankings use a mathematically advanced algorithm, explained here, which is not based on arbitrary points or money won, but instead forms a hierarchy of influence between competitors within whatever data-set is being used, here just U.S. racing.

Right now, we can crown Geroux as the clear ‘Boss of the Moss’ in the U.S.

 

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