Ryan Moore will be crowned Longines World’s Best Jockey for 2016 at a ceremony in Hong Kong a week today, and his runaway victory in the process that decides the title will surprise no-one - least of all those familiar with the TRC Global Rankings.
As he does in the final standings under the system devised by the experts of the IFHA (International Federation of Horseracing Authorities), the Englishman has a huge lead in our rankings, and his #1 position has not been in doubt for some time.
It is reassuring that the top five in both tables are the same, although 2-5 are in a different order. Indeed, they have each had outstanding years (unless you compare theirs with Moore’s) and this group is well ahead of the rest.
Thereafter, however, a comparison of the two sets of rankings reveals many discrepancies, which is to be expected considering the massive differences in the way they are calculated.
The TRC Global Rankings algorithm takes into account the last three runnings of each of around 1,450 group or graded races recognised by the IFHA (in effect, the best 1,450 races in the world), with performance ratings of each runner the key element in calculating the ranking of every jockey who has competed. It produces the top 500 every week based on this rolling three-year period, weighted in favour of more recent races. (It has similar rankings for trainers, owners and sires.)
No computer wizardry is needed in the World’s Best Jockey method, which uses only the first three finishers in what are considered to be the world’s best 100 races (for 3-year-olds and over, but not 2-year-olds). It allots 12 points for a win, six for a second and four for a third.
The table below is of the top 25 in the Longines standings, with each jockey’s TRC Global Ranking listed on the right.
Top 25 jockeys for 2016 in Longines standings
(Dec 1, 2015 - Nov 30, 2016)
Jockey (Modal Country - where they have most counting rides) Home country is in italics
TRC Global Ranking
1 (166 pts)
Ryan Moore (Great Britain) GB
1 (1087 pts)
Christophe Soumillon (France) Belgium
Hugh Bowman (Australia) Australia
Javier Castellano (United States) Venezuela
Frankie Dettori (Great Britain) Italy
Yutaka Take (Japan) Japan
Mike Smith (United States) USA
Andrea Atzeni (Great Britain) Italy
Joel Rosario (United States) Dominican Republic
William Buick (Great Britain) GB
Joao Moreira (Australia) Brazil
Tommy Berry (Australia) Australia
Craig Newitt (Australia) Australia
Kerrin McEvoy (Australia) Australia
James McDonald (Australia) New Zealand
Florent Geroux (United States) France
Zac Purton (Australia) Australia
Pat Smullen (Ireland) Ireland
Damien Oliver (Australia) Australia
Irad Ortiz Jr (United States) Puerto Rico
Kent Desormeaux (United States) USA
Victor Espinoza (United States) Mexico
Harry Bentley (Great Britain) GB
Mirco Demuro (Japan) Italy
Masayoshi Ebina (Japan) Japan
Interestingly, there are more jockeys riding in Australia in the 25 than anywhere else, which perhaps illustrates an imbalance in the global distribution of group and graded races.
Modal countries represented in Longines top 25
Australia 8 jockeys (6 in TRC rankings); U.S. 7 (7); GB 5 (5); Japan 3 (4); France 1 (1); Ireland 1 (1)
Home countries represented in Longines top 25
Australia 6; GB 3; Italy 3; Japan 2; U.S. 2; Belgium 1; Brazil 1; Dominican Republic 1; France 1; Ireland 1; Mexico 1; New Zealand 1; Puerto Rico 1; Venezuela 1
TRC Global Rankings: how the jockeys performed in 2016 alone
Of course, the Longines standings are based purely on results over the past 12 months. Here the TRC algorithm, which calculates its rankings over a three-year window, isolates jockeys’ performances over the last 12 months, with no weighting for recency, to offer a more direct comparison with the Longines list. The 2015 rank in column one represents jockeys’ performances isolated for the previous 12 months, again with no weighting for recency.
|2015 rank||2016 rank||Change||Name||Modal country||Rnrs||Runs||IV||RPR||G1s||G2s||G3s||2015 pts||2016 pts||Change|
|3||1||+2||Ryan Moore||Great Britain||98||183||1.71||102.34||19||8||17||1146||1197||+51|
|5||4||+1||Frankie Dettori||Great Britain||87||141||1.29||98.41||7||10||7||1140||1116||-24|
|40||15||+25||Jose L Ortiz||USA||75||116||1.21||94.71||4||4||15||1026||1080||+54|
|10||16||-6||William Buick||Great Britain||65||109||1.13||95.81||4||5||7||1084||1077||-7|
|18||24||-6||Irad Ortiz Jr||USA||84||126||1.01||95.07||4||5||9||1060||1057||-3|