Adam Mills looks back at action in the Blue Grass.
The Spring Meet at Keeneland is well underway.
The full set of data from TPD is available via our website, including some very eye-catching debuts from two-year-olds trained by Wesley Ward in the last ten days.
Last weekend saw several Grade 1s, with clues on offer for the rest of the year.
It’s those races I’ve focussed on, starting with the Maker’s Mark Mile on Friday.
Zulu Kingdom gave his trainer Chad Brown a 3,000th winner on Friday as he landed the Maker’s Mark Mile and upset short-priced favourite Notable Speech in the process.
I’ll come to Charlie Appleby’s runner in a moment, but first we should heap some praise on the winner, who has won seven of his nine career starts, and who controlled this race from the moment the gates opened.
Aomori City was presumably in the race to act as the pacemaker for Notable Speech, but he blew the start and, despite Richard Mullen’s best efforts, wasn’t able to get to the front.
Instead, Flavien Prat rode a brilliant race, getting Zulu Kingdom to the front with the fastest opening furlong splits (12.38 and 11.71s) to control the pace and, more importantly, hold the inside rail around the first turn.
From there he held the pace for the next half a mile, keeping his furlong splits between 11.83 and 12.04s before kicking clear off the home bend to win with some authority.
A finishing speed of 102.6 per cent for the winner would suggest that Flavien Prat judged this perfectly, especially given that the next three horses to chase him home all recorded higher figures. It was a relatively comfortable success for Chad Brown to celebrate.
A final furlong that ranked fourth (11.75s), a top speed that ranked fourth (39.81 mph) and a run-out speed that ranked fifth (35.97 mph) all suggest that those in behind may have been slightly unlucky, but, on his first start for over 250 days, Zulu Kingdom would be entitled to improve.
As for Notable Speech, William Buick’s post-race comments summed it up perfectly.
“Well, that was a mess,” he said.
The only thing that can be done is to put a line through it.
His pacemaker couldn’t lead and when they turned for home, Notable Speech ran into a pocket and, with no racing room, simply couldn’t use his turn of foot to close on the leader.
He had higher late speed and run-out speed figures than the winner and his average stride length figure peaked in the final furlong.
These things can happen, especially around a tight turning turf track, and, having recorded the highest average stride frequency figure in the field at 2.44 per second, I’ve no doubt he’d have been the fastest horse in the field if he had enjoyed a better run round.
If he returns to the UK on a more galloping track, he should return to his best form, but if he races in the US, there’ll always be the slight risk that something like this could happen.
As a result, the form can’t be taken literally when assessing Notable Speech in the future.
I’ve included our race summary infographic for this race because the judge wasn’t able to split Segesta and Expensive Queen, and our data can’t really separate them either.
The fact that at the end of this Grade 1 contest over the extended mile, the pair galloped through the line with just 0.11s between them over the final furlong and identical run-out speeds (measured two seconds after they crossed the line) at 37.4 mph, is testament to how little there was between the pair.
Segesta had won the Matriarch Stakes at Del Mar in November, while Expensive Queen completed a hat-trick of wins on Saturday evening after victories at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds earlier in the year.
The pair of them even have identical career records, with five wins from 12 starts each.
But if I were to try and find a reason to pick one of them to come out on top in their own right next time, I think that I’d rather be with Expensive Queen.
Segesta has done very little wrong and, at a peak average of 25.06 ft, she had the much longer stride of the pair (Expensive Queen’s was 23.94 ft).
“Segesta has done very little wrong and, at a peak average of 25.06 ft, she had the much longer stride of the pair (Expensive Queen’s was 23.94 ft).”
Having broken smartly with opening splits of 6.19 and 11.40s, Prat had his mount in the ideal position on the hind quarters of the early leader Aussie Girl.
By contrast, despite running the fastest opening split in 6.12s, Luis Saez had Expensive Queen caught in a pocket behind the leaders and had to wait for the gaps to come in the closing stages before he could ask his mount to go and win her race.
A finishing speed of 102.8 per cent for Expensive Queen and 101.7 per cent for Segasta suggests this race was run evenly, so Saez did well to get his mount on terms with Segasta, a fact borne out by the way that Expensive Queen recorded faster closing splits in 11.38 and 11.74s, clocking the quicker late speed figure of the pair at 38.6 mph.
In normal circumstances, a look at the late speed data would suggest that Expensive Queen was the unlucky “winner” and that, with a clear run, she’d have won in her own right.
That may be true but, having watched the replay a couple of times, I can’t help but feel that Segasta idled in front and appeared to pull herself up, at least partially, when Prat asked her to stretch.
Both her average stride length and stride frequency figures increased into the penultimate furlong, only to decrease again when she hit the front.
Expensive Queen ran her down and was the faster horse in the closing stages but, given that Segesta quickened when she was joined and recorded an identical run-out speed, we can assume from the data that she had something left in the tank.
Having watched back a few of her races at the end of 2025, there’s perhaps a case to be made that she did something similar then too, most notably when a close second in the First Lady Stakes at Keeneland in October.
She’s clearly a very talented filly, and her Grade 1 victory at Del Mar in November was very impressive, but, if given the opportunity, there’s just a slight suspicion from the data and the video replay that she may prefer to be played as late as possible.
Expensive Queen struggled during her time in the UK with Kevin Ryan and James Tate, reaching a peak OR of just 83.
However, she has turned over a new leaf since moving to the US with Brendan Walsh and has now won four of her five starts across the Atlantic.
She was fourth on her first try at Grade 1 level in the Gamely Stakes at Santa Anita last May, but the winner Be Your Best controlled that race by setting fast early fractions.
Expensive Queen recorded a quicker final furlong split and, given that the race came just a month after her US debut, I think we can forgive that.
She has gone unbeaten since and her compact stride and turn of foot, which includes a race best average stride frequency of 2.4 per second on Saturday, should mean that she’s ideally suited to turf races in the US, where the tight nature of the tracks suits fillies who can corner well and quicken through the gaps when they come.
She was the more progressive of the pair of winners on Saturday and I’d expect her to confirm the theory next time.
Lexington Stakes
There was a shock result in the three-year-old race as Trendsetter caused a 32-1 shock to win the Lexington Stakes under Kazushi Kimura for Ben Colebrook.
Having been beaten in each of his last five starts in Stakes company, his starting price did look to be about right, but the data suggests that this wasn’t a complete fluke and, on the day, Trendsetter was the best horse.
Kazushi Kimura was certainly helped by having the leaders in front of him setting a strong pace as they battled for the lead.
Ezum, The Hell We Did and Corona De Oro were all ridden aggressively and each of them reached the 6f pole in under 30.5s.
That resulted in the second and third placed horses recording finishing speeds of 94.6 and 94 per cent respectively and, as a result, the race was set up for a horse to close and take advantage of the drop in pace.
That horse was Trendsetter, who became the first Graded winner for his sire Modernist and added to a very successful Keeneland meeting for his trainer after he saddled Percy’s Bar to win the Ashland Stakes on Good Friday.
Trendsetter was the fastest horse in four of the last five furlongs and came home with a race best late speed figure of 35.05 mph (next best The Hell We Did managed 34.25 mph) as he powered on to win by over two lengths, hitting the line strongly with a run-out speed of 32.9 mph.
He got the perfect setup and, having covered the opening half a mile in 47s, had more left in the tank than most of his rivals when they began to turn for home.
I liked the fact that he was the only horse in the field who was able to increase his stride frequency in the latter part of the race and, on the basis that he finished the race nicely and showed that he has the required stamina for a well-run race around two turns, recording the longest average stride length in the field at 24.58 ft, it’s not impossible to think that he could win at this level in the future too.
A winning time of 1:44.51 ranks eighth in the last ten runnings of the Lexington Stakes and that’s probably a fair reflection of the level of form the winner has reached.
Trendsetter earned 20 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby by winning this race, but that’s unlikely to get him a run and the overall level of form that he has shown so far would suggest that he’s some way below the required level for a Grade 1 contest, even if this was a career best performance.
There have undoubtedly been stronger three-year-old races in recent weeks, but Trendsetter did at least show some significant improvement and connections should be able to find further races for this son of Modernist that’ll produce similar circumstances.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through www.totalperformancedata.com
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