Joel Pattison gives his preview and shares the trends for one of the world’s most famous steeplechase
The 2026 Randox Grand National field goes to post without its defending champion, writes Joel Pattison.
Nick Rockett was declared a non-runner on Thursday morning via a self-certificate after developing a cough, leaving the race without its title holder just over 48 hours before the off. Imperial Saint, trained by Philip Hobbs and Johnson White, steps in as the replacement.
The withdrawal is particularly harsh on Tom Bellamy, who had been announced as Nick Rockett’s shock new rider barely 24 hours earlier following Patrick Mullins’s surprise switch to Grangeclare West.
I Am Maximus heads the market under Paul Townend and bids to do what no horse has managed since Red Rum: win the Grand National, lose the title and then reclaim it.
His Aintree record is remarkable: a winner in 2024 and runner-up to his stablemate last year. He’ll wear cheekpieces here for only the second time in his career, but must also don top weight.
Grangeclare West, who won’t have the familiar Brian Hayes after Patrick Mullins’s reallocation, completes the top three from 2025 and is another serious Mullins contender.
The decision of the champion trainer’s son to switch from the defending champion to this horse spoke volumes about his confidence here.
Johnnywho, ridden by Richie McLernon for the JP McManus team and trained by the Jonjo O’Neill family, arrives on the back of a brilliant Cheltenham Festival win in the Ultima Handicap Chase and is a fascinating contender at 12/1.
Jagwar for Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero, with Mark Walsh in the saddle, is another strong candidate. The seven-year-old is young and progressive, and was narrowly denied in the Ultima. That kind of upward trajectory counts for a lot in a race of this nature.
After a huge amount of support into second favourite, Panic Attack carries the hopes of the British contingent. Harry Skelton rides for brother Dan Skelton and the mare has been in outstanding form all season.
A mare hasn’t won the National since Nickel Coin in 1951, so there’s a large obstacle to overcome before she even takes on Beecher’s Brook and The Chair.
Haiti Couleurs is a notable runner for Rebecca Curtis and British champion jump jockey Sean Bowen. The Welsh and Irish Grand National winner has the stamina but needs to bounce back sharply after being pulled up in the Gold Cup.
Iroko, fourth here last year for Greenall and Guerriero with Jonjo O’Neill Jr, knows what these fences are about.
That course experience is never to be underestimated.
Oscars Brother is another of the JP representatives for young trainer Connor King, ridden by his brother Daniel, and has been quietly progressive all season, with form figures of 221114.
Gordon Elliott runs Gerri Colombe, Firefox, Favori De Champdou, Three Card Brag and Stellar Story.
Henry de Bromhead has the well-backed Monty’s Star and Gorgeous Tom, while the in-form Ben Pauling’s Twig, initially the final confirmed runner at number 34, bids for a £500,000 bonus having already won the Becher Chase over these fences.
It’s the Grand National. Anything can happen and that’s precisely the point.
Age
Ten of the last 11 winners were aged between seven and nine.
That’s a notably damaging stat for three of the biggest names in the market: former winner I Am Maximus, last year’s third Grangeclare West and Dan Skelton’s mare Panic Attack all fall outside that ideal bracket.
Price
Three of the last 11 winners were favourite or joint favourite, four were in the top three of the betting and seven were priced at 11/1 or bigger.
Ireland holds the historical edge, though Britain arguably has more firepower at the top of the market than in recent renewals.
It’s a tough filter to apply with conviction this year.
Last run
Six of the 11 winners won on their last run before the National, two placed and nine ran within the preceding 49 days.
Six of the 11 winners came here via the Cheltenham Festival, covering a range of races: two from the Cross-Country Chase, two from the National Hunt Chase, one from the Pertemps Final and one from the Gold Cup.
Two of the 11 winners ran in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on their final start. Both of those won the race.
Weights
Nine of the 11 winners carried between 10st 5lbs and 11st 8lbs.
Top weight I Am Maximus and Grangeclare West are outside the remit at the top end. Panic Attack scrapes in at the bottom on exactly 10-5, while Ultima winner Johnnywho is deemed too light at 10-4.
Both of Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero’s runners for JP McManus fall right within the range, carrying 11-1 and 10-10 respectively.
Previous course form
Six of the 11 winners had at least one previous run at Aintree, and two had at least one previous win at the track.
Course experience is a positive rather than essential but, given the unique demands of the Grand National fences, any previous time around the course is worth factoring in.
Previous distance form
Ten of the 11 winners had at least five runs over three miles or longer, eight had at least seven runs at that sort of trip, and eight had at least two wins over three miles or more.
Jagwar’s Ultima run was his first start at a minimum of three miles, which is a significant concern.
The trends favour looking beyond the market leaders, which raises more questions about I Am Maximus and Grangeclare West, as well as Cheltenham’s Ultima Chase runner-up Jagwar.
Trainer
Seven of the last 11 winners were trained in Ireland, with four coming from British yards.
Panic Attack has this filter working in her favour to a degree, with her Coral Gold Cup win at Newbury her fifth start over at least three miles, though it was her first win at the trip.
Previous chase form
All 11 winners had at least seven previous chase runs, ten had at least eight, nine had at least two chase wins and eight had at least three.
Oscars Brother has only six starts over fences, which rules him out immediately on this filter, despite his three wins in that time. Captain Cody has just one win from nine chase starts, which was in the Scottish Grand National, while Monty’s Star has only one win from 11 starts over the bigger obstacles.
Rating
Nine of the 11 winners were rated between 146 and 160.
Panic Attack scrapes in at the bottom of the range with a mark of 147, and I Am Maximus and Grangeclare West are both above the ceiling.
Welsh and Irish National winner Haiti Couleurs is on 166 and carries 11-10.
Seasonal form
All 11 winners had at least three runs that season, nine had no more than six and ten had at least one win already that campaign.
Harry Cobden's mount Perceval Legallois has had just two starts and did not win either.
Verdict
Iroko’s Ultima run was underwhelming, but it doesn’t change the fact that he fits the trends profile better than most in the field.
The eight-year-old sits squarely in the ideal age bracket, and carries 11-1 with a rating of 157, both within the optimal ranges. He was fourth in this race last year, giving him course form without a previous National win to his name, which is exactly what the stats ask for.
He also has 11 chase runs and two wins, and three starts this season, including a win at Ascot in December.
On the numbers, Iroko is the trends pick for the 2026 Grand National.
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