Joel Pattison looks at the data behind the first big British Flat turf handicap of the season, which comes on the same card as the country’s first two-year-old race of 2026.
There’s a great card at Doncaster this weekend, with the traditional start of the British Flat turf season featuring the opening Brocklesby Stakes (in which 15-odd two-year-olds will career down the 5f straight), two Listed prizes and the 1m Lincoln Handicap for horses aged four and older.
This year’s Brocklesbury carries the name of trainer Bill Turner, who died in a freak accident last year, and the Lincoln has a full field of 22 runners declared.
Joel Pattison has done some digging into emerging trends from the handicap’s last 11 runnings.
Age
Nine of the last 11 winners were aged four or five, making this one of the most clear-cut filters in the race.
Six-year-olds Botanical and Galeron are two notable horses who fall outside this ideal range and both face an uphill battle on that stat alone before another box is ticked.
Price
Just one of the last 11 winners came from the front of the market.
Only three winners were among the top three in the betting and seven of the 11 winners were priced at 12-1 or bigger.
That’s a significant warning for market leader La Botte, and Eternal Force and Shout are also up against it based on the trends.
Weight
Nine of the last 11 winners carried between 8st 12lbs and 9st 4lbs. That represents another negative for Jamie Spencer’s mount La Botte, who’s joint-top weight with a hefty 9-12.
Shout takes a second hit here, assigned 9-9, while Godolphin’s Anno Domini is allocated 9-8, though Toby Moore removes a noteworthy 7lbs.
Last run
Four of the 11 winners won on their last run before the Lincoln and nine of the 11 had their final prep run 135 or more days ago.
That combination makes the in-form runners particularly interesting.
Eternal Force, seeking a fourth win in a row, and Rogue Diplomat, who’s on a five-timer, both stand out on that front.
Previous course form
Four of the 11 winners had at least one previous run at Doncaster, and two had at least one previous win at the track.
Course form isn’t essential, but it’s a positive.
Rogue Diplomat’s last two wins came at Doncaster, which is a standout.
Shout is another course winner, alongside bigger-priced options Thunder Road, Theoryofeverything, and course and distance winner La Trinidad.
Previous distance form
Ten of the 11 winners had at least two previous runs over 1m and nine had at least one previous win at the trip.
La Botte had two runs over a mile but didn’t win either, adding another blemish to an already difficult profile.
Eternal Force is a three-time winner over 1m, while Shout has three runs and a win over the distance.
Tribal Chief is one with plenty of experience over 1m, winning five times from a substantial number of starts.
Previous Flat form
Ten of the 11 winners had at least five previous Flat runs and nine had at least three Flat wins.
La Botte has had exactly five runs but has only won once, which is another unfavourable mark.
Eternal Force’s hat-trick takes him to three wins in seven outings.
Rogue Diplomat ticks this box well with five wins from ten starts.
Shout has three wins from ten.
Rating
Nine of the 11 winners held a rating between 94 and 102.
La Botte is rated slightly too high at 104 and joint-top weight Botanical is another above the threshold, also on 104.
Tribal Chief comes in just under at 93.
The sweet spot is a rating of 94-102 and several of the more fancied runners sit nicely within it. Eternal Force is on 96 and Shout is 101.
Season form
Three of the 11 winners had at least one run that season and none had won before the Lincoln.
La Botte reappeared in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, finishing an eye-catching fourth, and Orandi also had a prep run in the Irish Lincolnshire, finishing 15th.
Thunder Road was seventh in the Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton.
Verdict
The trends consistently point away from the market leaders and when you work through every filter, Rogue Diplomat is the horse who ticks the most boxes.
He’s a four-year-old with a rating of 95, a weight of 9-3 and five wins from ten Flat starts: all within the ideal ranges.
He won last time out, arriving here on a five-timer, and his last two wins came at Doncaster itself.
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