Looking ahead to day four of the Cheltenham Festival, including the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Harry Redknapp already has an FA Cup, ‘King of the Jungle’ title from the television show I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here and a King George VI Chase to his name.
But the Cheltenham Gold Cup would likely top it all for the legendary former football manager.
Well, the term ‘former’ mightn’t last much longer.
His old club Tottenham Hotspur are in dire need, and if Redknapp wins the Gold Cup on Friday, they might just come calling in a bid to avoid relegation.
In all seriousness, Redknapp has a great chance with The Jukebox Man, who won a thrilling renewal of the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day, but faces a stern test against Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie, who weren't far off at all in third and fourth.
It’s a shame that Galopin Des Champs won’t be lining up to go for that historic feat of becoming just the second horse to regain the famous trophy after Kauto Star, but the aforementioned Gaelic Warrior keeps alive Closutton’s hopes of a fifth win since 2019.
Haiti Couleurs is another genuine chance for the Brits.
He has won both the Irish and Welsh Grand Nationals, and Sean Bowen has watched his brother add his first two Cheltenham winners to his CV this week, while he still waits for his. The Gold Cup would be a perfect Cheltenham Festival win.
Mullins could dominate the final afternoon in style. At the time of writing, he has six favourites across the seven races.
Proactif and Selma De Vary lead the Triumph Hurdle, Karbau and Murcia head the County Hurdle, Dinoblue and Spindleberry are first and second in the market for the Mares’ Chase, Doctor Steinberg tops the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, Gaelic Warrior leads the Gold Cup market and Kel Histoire and Roc Dino are in the running for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle.
The only race where Mullins doesn't have a strong presence is the Princess Royal Challenge Cup.
What a team for the master of Closutton on the final afternoon.
Triumph Hurdle
The Triumph Hurdle is restricted to four-year-olds, but recent trends still highlight some strong patterns.
Irish trainers have dominated, with nine of the last 12 winners, while the market has a fair record, with five favourites winning and six coming from the top three in the betting.
Recent form also looks key, with ten of the last 12 winners finishing at least placed last time out and almost all running within 48 days.
That’s a slight concern for the well-fancied Proactif, whose last run came 58 days ago.
Trial races can also be informative, with several recent winners coming from the Spring Juvenile Hurdle or the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle.
Verdict: Maestro Conti appeals despite a slightly lower rating than typical winners. Dan Skelton’s youngster arrives after winning the Grade 2 Finesse Juvenile Hurdle here 48 days ago and is two-from-two since joining the yard.
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
The Albert Bartlett has a reputation for big-priced winners and the numbers back that up.
No favourite has won in the last 12 renewals, while ten winners were priced 11-1 or bigger.
Age trends are relatively consistent, with most winners aged six or seven, and Irish trainers dominate with nine of the last 12.
Proven stamina is vital too, with 11 of the last 12 winners having both run and won over three miles or thereabouts beforehand. Most winners also had solid experience over hurdles, typically with three or more runs.
With the market historically unreliable, this is a race where it can pay to look beyond the obvious contenders.
Verdict: Kazansky fits the typical profile nicely. Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old is rated 139, has Graded form and already has a win over the same trip. At around 16-1, he sits exactly in the price range where this race so often throws up its winner.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
The Gold Cup trends paint a clear picture of the ideal contender.
Every winner in the last 12 renewals was aged between seven and nine, immediately ruling out older challengers like Envoi Allen and L’Homme Presse.
Irish trainers have also dominated, responsible for ten of the last 12 winners, while class is essential, with every winner having at least one previous Grade 1 victory – a blemish for Haiti Couleurs.
Course experience is another major factor, as all recent winners had previously run at Cheltenham.
Stamina and chasing experience are equally important, with most winners boasting multiple runs and victories over three miles or further.
Verdict: Gaelic Warrior fits the profile of a Gold Cup winner remarkably well. He sits comfortably in the key age range, carries a lofty rating of 178 and already has multiple Grade 1 victories to his name. While he didn’t win last time out, he still ticks the vast majority of historical trends.
Nick, joined by the likes of Lydia Hislop and Dan Barber, looks back at the penultimate card and dissects the words of JP McManus and Willie Mullins, who didn’t seem to hold back in thoughts about the going.
Looking ahead to today, Charlotte Greenway catches up with Patrick Mullins and Ben Pauling, trainer of Gold Cup hopeful The Jukebox Man, joins the show via video link.
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