Cheltenham Festival 2026: St Patrick’s Thursday

Looking ahead to day three of the Cheltenham Festival, including the Ryanair Chase.

How are we halfway through the 2026 Cheltenham Festival already? It has gone in a flash, but I’m loving every second.

The penultimate day is headlined by two Championship contests: The Stayers’ Hurdle and the Ryanair Chase.

Ryanair Chase

They’ve swapped race times this year, with the Stayers’ now at 15:20 and the Ryanair taking the 16:00 slot.

Fact To File is the shortest favourite of the week in the Ryanair, and he’ll take all the beating.

JP McManus must’ve been tempted by the Gold Cup after his recent win in Ireland, but the decision to attempt to retain their Ryanair title has made him the banker of the week.

Stayers’ Hurdle

The Stayers’ Hurdle has a familiar name near the fore of the market and Teahupoo is set to go off favourite for the fourth-year running.

When was the last time the Cheltenham Festival included such a feat?

It’s impressive, but the Gordon Elliott-trained horse’s record in the contest isn’t all that really.

He has only won it once in those three outings, so while his last win was notable as he reversed the form on Bob Olinger, he’s not a reliable favourite.

The British haven’t won the Stayers’ since Lisnagar Oscar in 2020, but the hosts have two big hopes: Kabral Du Mathan for Dan Skelton and Cleeve Hurdle winner Ma Shantou for Emma Lavelle and jockey Harry Cobden.

Champion Bumper winner Bambino Fever is fancied for the red-hot Willie Mullins, who’s having another fantastic week thus far, in the opening Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.

The Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase is where Britain perhaps have their most likely winner, with the top three near the top of the betting being Meetmebythesea, Regent’s Stroll and Jordans Cross for Ben Pauling, Paul Nicholls and Anthony Honeyball respectively.

Mares’ Hurdle

The Mares’ Hurdle is a scrap between Gordon Elliott and Mullins, with Wodhooh the fancied, but Jade De Grugy will be a tough challenger.

The Kim Muir wraps up proceedings and Jeriko Du Reponet could be another winner for Nicky Henderson and JP McManus.

Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

The age trend in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle is remarkably strong, with all of the last ten winners aged five or six.

That immediately puts a question mark against the likes of four-year-old Charme De Faust and seven-year-old La Conquiere.

The market hasn’t always been a reliable guide either, with only three favourites winning in the last decade, although six winners still came from the top three in the betting.

Irish trainers dominate, responsible for seven of the last ten winners, while recent form also counts, with seven winners scoring last time out and eight running within 47 days.

Bambino Fever’s previous Cheltenham win in the Champion Bumper also bucks another trend, with no recent winner having scored at the track beforehand.

Verdict: Just three winning favourites in the last decade is difficult to ignore. Second favourite Oldschool Outlaw fits plenty of the key trends. She’s six, trained in Ireland by Gordon Elliott and arrives unbeaten in three hurdle starts this season, including a Grade 3 success at Fairyhouse last time.

Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase

Now a Grade 2 handicap, this contest has a very consistent profile.

Eleven of the last 12 winners were aged six or seven, immediately putting Slade Steel on the back foot.

The market tends to get close, with 11 of the last 12 winners coming from the top three in the betting, but well-backed Meetmebythesea has several negatives.

Every winner in the sample had run at Cheltenham previously, and two-thirds had already won there.

Strong chase form is also key, with most winners having multiple runs and wins over fences, plus a rating of 146 or higher.

Meetmebythesea falls short on several counts, including rating and distance experience.

Verdict: The trends point firmly towards the top of the market. Jordans Cross looks the most convincing fit. The six-year-old, who’s joint-third in the betting, won over course and distance last time and has three wins from four chase starts this season.

Stayers’ Hurdle

The Stayers’ Hurdle typically rewards horses in their prime, with ten of the last 12 winners aged between six and eight, which leaves nine-year-old fancied Teahupoo outside the main trend.

Favourites don’t dominate either, with only three successful in the last dozen renewals.

Experience counts heavily: most winners had at least eight hurdle runs and multiple victories, along with strong staying form at three miles.

Cheltenham experience also looks crucial, with 11 of the last 12 winners having previously run at the track.

Several contenders fail key metrics, including Honesty Policy, who lacks both experience and course form, while Kabral Du Mathan has yet to tackle the full three-mile trip.

Verdict:Ma Shantou narrowly misses a couple of trends but has plenty of appeal. The seven-year-old fits the key age bracket and arrives after winning the Cleeve Hurdle here, his third consecutive Cheltenham victory this season, all over three miles.

Ryanair Chase

The Ryanair Chase has another of the clearest profiles in the Festival.

Every winner in the last 12 renewals has been aged between seven and nine, while the market is usually a reliable guide, with ten of the last 12 winners coming from the top three in the betting.

Cheltenham experience is almost essential: all winners had at least two previous runs at the track and the majority had already won there.

Class is another key indicator, with nearly all winners rated 162 or higher and boasting previous Grade 1 success. Irish trainers have also dominated in recent years, responsible for eight of the last 12 winners.

Verdict: There’s an obvious standout in Fact To File. Willie Mullins’s star ticks almost every statistical box and possesses the class profile, being the defending champion. He’s the one to beat.