Looking ahead to day two of the Cheltenham Festival, including the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
St. Patrick’s Thursday is the annual celebration of the Irish at Cheltenham, but the visitors could be about to paint Ladies Day green before the party even starts.
Five of the seven favourites on day two are Irish-trained and Willie Mullins alone is responsible for three of them.
If I said Tuesday was Britain’s best hope of a strong day, Wednesday looks like Ireland’s first real opportunity to pull away in the Prestbury Cup.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The feature is the Queen Mother Champion Chase and Majborough is one of the shortest-priced favourites of the entire week.
His form entitles him to that status. He was brilliant in the Dublin Chase and has the pace and class to dominate at two miles.
But questions about his jumping have followed him through his career and Cheltenham’s fences have a way of exposing any weakness, as they did in last year’s Arkle.
L’Eau Du Sud, a course and distance winner, sits near the top of the market and will be watching for any notable errors. He’s proven around here and doesn’t need Majborough to fall, just to find his rhythm a fraction slower than usual.
Elsewhere for Mullins, Storm Heart heads the market in the newly named BetMGM Cup, where Kateira is a genuine British contender for the Skeltons, despite sitting third in the betting at time of writing, behind two Willie Mullins Closutton runners.
Love Sign D’Aunou is prominent in the Champion Bumper, where Ireland have dominated in recent years and look set to do so again.
But this mightn’t simply be a Mullins procession.
Gordon Elliott, one of his oldest and fiercest rivals, has the tools to make Wednesday an all-Irish battle in its own right.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
Romeo Coolio has leapfrogged Final Demand at the head of the Brown Advisory market, as they’ve decided to test him over three miles for the first time.
Favori De Champdou is near the top of the Cross Country Chase market, and cross-country is a discipline where Elliott’s yard has a strong record.
Turners Novices’ Hurdle
Ballyfad and Keep Him Company are fancied for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle and the Champion Bumper respectively. The real contest on Wednesday could be green versus green.
For Britain, the most realistic chances come in the Turners and the Grand Annual.
No Drama This End is Paul Nicholls' biggest opportunity of the week, and Dan Skelton's Be Aware is a serious contender at the fore of the market. The Warwickshire trainer may have the ammunition to be a thorn in Ireland's side, even if the overall scoreboard is likely to favour the visitors by close of play.
Britain is unlikely to outscore Ireland on day two, but if Skelton fires in the Grand Annual, Majborough has an uncharacteristic afternoon and Nicholls wins the Turners with No Drama This End, the gap could be a good deal smaller than the markets imply.
Turners Novices’ Hurdle
The age trend is fairly unkind to Sober, who at seven falls outside the five to six bracket that has produced 11 of the last 12 winners.
The Irish trainer dominance is a significant flag for favourite No Drama This End, with ten of the last 12 winners having been trained in Ireland, leaving just two coming from Great British yards.
His rating also falls below the 146 threshold met by all 12 of the last 12 winners.
Yet he counters elsewhere: 12 of 12 winners had at least one run over 19 to 21 furlongs, and he has both experience and a win at the track, a rarity given that only two of the last 12 winners had previous Cheltenham form.
His three hurdle wins have all come in Graded company, including in a Grade 1.
Ballyfad and King Rasko Grey both failed to win last time, against an 11-of-12 last-run winning trend, and each has only one hurdle win, short of the 11-of-12 minimum of two.
Verdict: No Drama This End. The rating is a concern, but he ticks enough boxes to overcome it, including Graded race experience, a Cheltenham win and a last-run victory, in a race where the favourite has a decent record with six wins in 12 runnings.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
The age split is striking here.
Nine of the last 12 winners were aged seven, which is an unusually tight trend and a blot for third and fourth favourites Kaid D’Authie and Koktail Divin, who are both six.
Koktail Divin has more concerns.
He has never run at Cheltenham, against a 12-of-12 course experience trend, and falls below both the 152 OR threshold met by 10 of the last 12 winners and the Graded race requirement met by 10 of 12.
Final Demand’s defeat at the Dublin Racing Festival is another flag, with nine of the last 12 winners winning last time out.
Romeo Coolio’s distance profile is nuanced.
He has never raced beyond 20 furlongs under Rules, though a point-to-point win over 24 furlongs provides some mitigation against the 11-of-12 trend for previous experience at the trip.
The GB-Irish trainer split is more notable here than in most Cheltenham races, with seven of the last 12 winners trained in Britain.
Verdict: Wendigo. Just outside the top three in the betting but ticks the boxes those ahead of him don’t.
Seven years old, British-trained, won last time at Ayr on his fourth chase start, holds a Grade 2 win at Newbury, and has previous course experience and enough mileage over three miles.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The trends are stacked against the current market leader here. Majborough is only six, while 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between seven and nine.
Favourites have won just four of the last 12 runnings, the worst strike rate of any of the day’s Grade 1s. He also has only four previous chase wins, against the ten-of-12 minimum of five.
Irish Panther’s claims are even more undermined.
This will be just his third chase start, against a ten-of-12 trend for at least seven previous chase runs. He has an OR of just 153, no Grade 1 win and only one prior Cheltenham run.
Quilixios hasn’t run since falling in this race last year, at odds with the 11-of-12 trend for at least two seasonal starts.
Verdict: L’Eau Du Sud. Aged eight, second in the betting, five chase wins from eight starts, a Grade 1 win, an OR of 163, multiple Cheltenham runs (including a Grade 2 Shloer Chase win in November) and two runs this season.
Today’s episode features Paul Townend, whose rides on day two include Final Demand and Il Etait Temps.
Luck also hears from Gavin Cromwell, who sends out the likes of Vanillier and Pardubice hero Stumptown in the Cross-Country, and from John Joseph ‘Shark Hanlon’, who has Penzance and Hewick on tomorrow’s card.
He also checks in with Liz Armstrong at the shopping village.
Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges paid tribute to Louis Romanet, who died last week
James Burn looked at Malaysia in the first instalment of a new series examining small racing nations
Debbie Burt was in Qatar for HH The Amir Sword Festival
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