History was made at the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar on Saturday [Nov 1] when Japan recorded arguably the most notable triumph in the annals of a proud racing nation as Forever Young landed America’s most prestigious race, the $7m Classic.
The much-travelled four-year-old is no stranger to US racing, having finished a close third last year in both the Kentucky Derby and BC Classic.
After a lucrative spring winning the Saudi Cup (and a rancorous odds-on defeat in Dubai), this year’s Classic was nominated as Forever Young’s primary target.
He duly made no mistake, racing prominently before keeping on well inside the final furlong to hold off the 2024 winner Sierra Leone by a half-length. Back in third was the 2024 runner-up Fierceness, which means the same 1-2-3 filled the places as 12 months previously, albeit in a different order.
“This is like if the Japanese team won the World Cup,” said globe-trotting trainer Yoshito Yahagi, still the only trainer from his nation to register a BC winner, his career tally now standing at three after the historic double in 2021 – also at Del Mar.
“The Japanese racing industry never expected us to win the Breeders' Cup Classic,” Yahagi added. “We appreciate Forever Young and we got to number one in America. And yes, he will be back next year.”
Forever Young (#4 from #11, +220pt) enters the world Top 5 according to Thoroughbred Racing Commentary’s exclusive Global Rankings.
For his part, Yoshito Yahagi moves up to #45 (from #53, +35pt) and jockey Ryusei Sakai climbs to a career-high #12 (from #13, +29pt). Even Forever Young’s sire Real Steel (#9 from #15, +77pt) gets a big bump to reach the Top Ten on the dirt sires’ listings.
“We celebrated at a Mexican restaurant and were watching the LA Dodgers win the World Series,” added Yahagi. “It was a great game and a series but I’m a bit disappointed that our story got overshadowed!”
Also worth noting here that second-placed Sierra Leone (#9 from #12, +55pt) ends his racing career in more than creditable fashion, given the front-end bias at Del Mar. He only just failed to defend his crown before stud duties at Coolmore’s American outpost.
Taking the remainder of the Breeders’ Cup in rankings order, Nysos (#12 from #33, +170pt) makes a big move after a narrow verdict over last year’s champion juvenile Citizen Bull in the Dirt Mile in a one-two for trainer Bob Baffert (#3 from #4, +20pt).
Although Nysos’s three-year-old campaign last year was derailed through injury, the son of Nyquist now boasts an impeccable career record of six wins from seven starts. Even that sole defeat came only after a 15-month layoff in G1 company earlier this year at Churchill Downs – over an inadequate trip behind Classic fifth Mindframe.
Indeed, Nysos may well have run in the Classic himself but for another setback (bruised foot) that meant missing the Pacific Classic.
“He is probably as close to an American Pharoah-type horse that I have had,” said Baffert. The trainer was also on the mark with Splendora (enters at #134) in the Filly & Mare Sprint to take his career tally to 21 Breeders’ Cup wins – and a share of the overall record with Aidan O’Brien. More on him later.
If it is the BC Mile, then it must be Charlie Appleby (stays at #2, +7pt) and William Buick, and the Godolphin pair took their record in the race to four wins in five years (remarkably, with four different horses) via Notable Speech (#16 from #44, +179pt).
The four-year-old landed his fourth G1 in fine style by a comfortable length and a half. “Notable Speech has got that electric turn of foot – he’s tailor-made for this track,” said Appleby (stays at #2, +7pt). The winner reportedly stays in training.
Among the more impressive winners at the two-day extravaganza was Turf Sprint heroine Shisospicy (#33 from #202, +279pt), who broke like a shot from a gun from a wide draw before an electric 2½-length win.
She became the first three-year-old filly to win the race, in the process initiating a memorable double for trainer Jose D’Angelo (#125 from #143, +93pt) who also claimed the BC Sprint with Bentornato (re-enters at #35), going one better than his 2024 effort.
Irad Ortiz (stays at #6, +32pt) rode both D’Angelo winners, having also landed the Juvenile Turf Sprint on Friday’s card with Cy Fair. He duly won his sixth Bill Shoemaker Award as the event’s leading rider.
While it is always difficult for two-year-olds to make giant strides in the overall rankings, the spooneristically-inclined Ted Noffey (#44 from #91, +111pt) enters the Top 50 with his third G1 success. Unbeaten in four, he looked much the best – and, naturally, becomes early favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
World-leading trainer Aidan O’Brien (stays at #1, -19pt) had a few reverses – True Love fell out of the stalls from a wide berth, Precise scratched, Minnie Hauk turned over – but he still got on the scoresheet with Gstaad (#46 from #145, +191pt) in the Juvenile Turf.
One hesitates to suggests this has become a pea-shelling exercise for Ballydoyle, but if they send one of their better juvenile colts, the chances are that it will win.
O’Brien has won the race eight times now, including the last four. He became the winningmost trainer in BC history with this, his 21st success – one more than the legendary D Wayne Lukas. Quite the accolade – especially when one considers some of the debacles among Ballydoyle’s early BC sorties – though he was soon joined by Baffert, as we’ve already mentioned.
Shock 28-1 BC Turf winner Ethical Diamond enters the rankings at #87 – despite the exalted status of his victims, he can’t be ranked higher given that he had never before run in a Group or Graded stakes. On the Flat, that is. He had run in a few over jumps, and the Ebor Handicap (which he won in August) isn’t far off the Melbourne Cup in quality terms.
His jockey, the new Irish champion Dylan Browne McMonagle (#49 from #53, +25pt), rightly received the plaudits after a cool ride, and what can you say about the winning trainer, jump racing legend Willie Mullins? if TRC did jump rankings, he would have been at number one for a couple of centuries, but he’ll have to settle for #226 (from #353, +45pt) on the Flat. Put simply, this was possibly the most extraordinary victory of an extraordinary career – and that’s allowing for a historic Grand National 1-2-3.
Elsewhere, Prix de Diane (French Oaks) winner Gezora (#47 from #153, +189pt) ensured the estimable Francis Graffard (stays at #7, +9pt) did not go home empty-handed in the BC Filly & Mare Turf, while all-the-way BC Distaff winner Scylla (#106 from #453, +247pt) did a little to assuage the disappointment of Sovereignty’s non-appearance for trainer Bill Mott (#13 from #20, +58pt).
We’ve extended this week’s rankings update to include important matters in Australia on Tuesday [Nov 4], where Half Yours (#24 from #47, +131pt) powered home to become the 13th horse to complete the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double. On rain-softened ground at Flemington, the Aussie-bred five-year-old easily overcame a phalanx of overseas visitors to win going away by nearly three lengths.
Perhaps the most significant factor, however, is the identity of the winning jockey, namely Jamie Melham (née Kah), the world’s highest-ranked female rider.
Only the second woman to win the A$10m ($6.5m/£4.96m) event after ground-breaking Michelle Payne ten years ago, Melham moves up to #31 (from #34, +7pt) on our jockeys’ list.
Among other notable performances last weekend in Australia was a return to form in G1 company for the hugely popular front-running mare Pride Of Jenni (#29 from #49, +91pt), who won the Empire Rose Stakes on Saturday’s Victoria Derby card at Flemington. The main event went to the favourite Observer (#116 from #328, +171pt).
Needless to say, there were also some lucrative prizes on offer in Sydney, where star filly Autumn Glow (#23 from #26, +43pt) continued on her winning spree in the Golden Eagle. This 7½-furlong event may lack the Melbourne Cup’s history, status and popularity – but it doesn’t lack its purse, also carrying prize-money of A$10m.
Given that Autumn Glow’s career record is now eight-from-eight, it is hardly surprising she is now beginning to draw comparisons with the legendary Winx (also trained by world #4 trainer Chris Waller).
It’s a bit early for that, but she’s pretty good, all right. “She gives me that ooh-la-la feeling – I’d love to see her in a Cox Plate,” said winning rider James McDonald (stays at #2, -5pt).
“I don’t think we’ve seen the best version of her yet either, we’re so lucky to have her. She was out on her feet and she just keeps finding, she is fair dinkum.”
And finally back to Japan, where Masquerade Ball (re-enters at #57) was a surprising favourite for the prestigious Tenno Sho on his first start in five months at Tokyo racecourse.
Having been placed in a pair of this season’s Japanese Classics, the winner turned the tables on Satsuki Sho (2,000 Guineas) winner Museum Mile under seven-time Japanese champion jockey Christophe Lemaire (stays at #5, +6pt).
Whether or not Masquearde Ball will be seen again this year remains open to question – the Japan Cup and/or Arima Kinen may be hard to ignore – but either way he very much appeals as the sort to make his presence felt in a serious fashion as a four-year-old.
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• Unlike traditional methods of racehorse rankings, TRC Global Rankings are a measure of an individual’s level of achievement over a rolling three-year period, providing a principled hierarchy of the leading horses, jockeys, trainers, owners and sires using statistical learning techniques. Racehorse rankings can be compared to similar exercises in other sports, like the golf’s world rankings or the ATP rankings in tennis.
They are formulated from the last three years of races we consider Group or Graded class all over the world and update automatically each week according to the quality of a horse’s performances and their recency, taking into account how races work out.