Breeders’ Cup Saturday: How to bet the Europeans on Day 2 at Del Mar

Goliath: looks a value option in a Breeders’ Cup Turf full of high-profile Europeans. Photo: Hattie Austin / focusonracing.com

Form expert Graham Dench assesses the chances of the European-trained runners on the second day of the two-day extravaganza at Del Mar

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Europe tends to be weaker in the sprint division than over a mile and more, and yet they’ve won two of the last five runnings of the Turf Sprint, with Glass Slippers in 2020 and Starlust 12 months ago.

GRAHAM DENCH ON BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY

The closest to a stand-out sprinter in Europe this year has been Asfoora, who has gained two major G1s, but she’s by no means top of the pile back home in Australia and that doesn’t augur well for our quartet of runners in an international field here.

Amo Racing’s Arizona Blaze, who took second close home in the Juvenile Turf Sprint 12 months ago, is the shortest price of them with bookmakers at home. His experience of the course and travelling to the States will stand him in good stead, and he confirmed himself in good form with a G1 win in the Flying Five at the Curragh, where his year-older Amo stablemate Bucanero Fuerte was third and She’s Quality was fourth. Granted a smart break he should be well placed to figure prominently from stall three.

The Flying Five trio are joined by the Charlie Hills-trained veteran Khaadem, who is a dual G1 winner at Royal Ascot over six furlongs and recently won a G2 evemt over 5½ furlongs at Keeneland in the hands of Frankie Dettori. He’s clearly still able on his day and he’ll love the likely fast ground, but he’s a confirmed hold-up horse and will need plenty of luck in running from stall four. As such, it is a stretch to see him landing a $1m G1 event like this as a nine-year-old.

In the circumstances this may be best left to the home team.

Breeders’ Cup Turf

This is a race that is nearly always marked for export – to the extent that only Bricks And Mortar (2019) has stood in the way of a clean sweep through the last ten years. There are set to be no fewer than nine European runners this time around, including all the market principals.

The hugely popular Rebel’s Romance, who won this in 2022 and 2024, is back to attempt a record-equalling third win at the Breeders’ Cup. The globe-trotting veteran showed he remains a force to reckon with at the very highest level with an impressive ninth G1 win in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at the ‘Belmont at the Big A’ meet in September (stablemate El Cordobes back in third). He looks to have an obvious chance again, but according to the betting he won’t be Europe’s main hope.

That honour goes to Minnie Hauk, who has won the Oaks, the Irish Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks already this year and was most recently only collared close home when beaten just a head by Daryz when favourite for a Prix de l’Arc De Triomphe run in very soft ground.

She would be a remarkable eighth winner of this race for Aidan O’Brien and ought to be hard to beat, but underfoot conditions will be very different here compared to Longchamp and the tight track is unlikely to play to her strengths.

Third-best in betting lists and more appealing at the odds is GOLIATH, the first of Francis Graffard’s three runners at the meeting and a G1 winner of Ascot’s King George in 2024 and again more recently in the Grosser Preis von Baden.

While Graffard concedes this gelding is the type who needs things to go his way, the quick ground shouldn’t be a problem – after all he beat the subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking on it at Ascot last year. With his trainer carrying all before him, he looks worth chancing against the front two, solid as they may look. He was supplemented by John Stewart’s Resolute Racing.

Others heading here include Amiloc, who has won five of his six races and might well have found the extended distance stretching him when second to Al Riffa in the Irish St Leger.

Ethical Diamond, who has been near unbeatable in handicaps but takes a big step up in class while G2 winner Rashabar is yet to score this year. Silawi, a big improver lately, won the G1 Canadian International under similar conditions and could outrun his odds. Wimbledon Hawkeye was a game winner of the G3 Nashville Derby Invitational at Kentucky Downs last time.

Breeders’ Cup Mile

Last year’s third Notable Speech could well start favourite again and he’ll merit every respect after returning to close to his best with a decisive win in the G1 Woodbine Mile.

Last year’s 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner is top-class on his day and represents Charlie Appleby, who won successive runnings of this race with Space Blues, Modern Games and Master of the Seas. However, nobody could claim he’s the most dependable.

The Graffard representative SAHLAN makes more appeal, as he is very much on the up and beat classy yardstick Rosallion in the Prix du Moulin last time on his first appearance in a G1, when the frustrating The Lion In Winter shaped better than previously in third. Sahlan has a turn of foot and Graffard does not anticipate any issues with quick ground. After just six runs there should be more to come.

Jonquil, a strong-finishing fourth in the G1 Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland last time, and Qirat, who was running as a pacemaker when a 150-1 winner of Goodwood’s G1 Sussex Stakes, both represent Juddmonte. However, they have been done no favours by their wide draws and look to have only outside chances.

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

The Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf brings the curtain down on a second day of brilliant sport and the visitors are strong here too.

Charlie Appleby has two live chances, but stamina might be an issue for Cinderella’s Dream, who is the mount of William Buick and looks the stable’s number one. Diamond Rain gives rising star ‘Billy The Kid’ Loughnane a great opportunity, having just failed to reel in She Feels Pretty in the EP Taylor at Woodbine. However, Appleby suggested after Woodbine that Del Mar might be too sharp for Diamond Rain and said he might wait for some juice in the ground.

The Graffard filly Gezora had the better of Aidan O’Brien-trained Bedtime Story when winning the Prix de Diane and the trainer has suggested that her most recent effort in the Arc can be forgotten.

She has plenty going for her and is much preferred to outsiders Atsila and Cathedral, but the final selection is SEE THE FIRE, who is overdue a first win at this level. She has run some terrific races in defeat at the highest level since her 12-length romp in a G2 at York in the spring, notably when narrowly failing to overhaul Barnavara in the Prix de l’Opera last time at Longchamp. She handles quick ground well and the slightly longer trip should suit. This is her big chance.