Despite twice being beaten by Sovereignty in their Triple Crown series, Preakness Stakes winner Journalism has jumped ahead of his arch-rival into the Top 5 on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary’s Global Rankings.
How so? You might well ask. Okay, the west-coast star may have recorded his latest dramatic win, leaving it late in typical style to confirm the Preakness form over Gosger by a half-length in the $1 million Haskell on Saturday [July 19] at Monmouth Park.
But even so, as we await Sovereignty’s response in the G2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga this coming weekend, surely the dual Classic winner has already done enough to sit in a more prominent position than Journalism in the rankings?
Yet Journalism now stands at #4 – six places ahead of Sovereignty at #10. In truth, this is a rare situation: it isn’t often the rankings algorithm would place one horse higher than another, despite their having been beaten twice by that rival in the recent past.
So let me explain. Or rather, let rankings guru James Willoughby explain. Over to you, James:
James Willoughby says: The fact is that Journalism is two races ahead of Sovereignty (7 to 5) and those two races were victories in the Preakness and Haskell. Two races does not constitute inviolate proof that one horse is better than another, especially when the defeated horse has other exploits and a deeper body of work. But this is an unusual case.
If we always think we know better than numbers, then there is no point in computation. TRC Global Rankings use a set of mathematical criteria applied equally to every horse in the world with no fear of favour.
We have not reached the end of the season yet. Not only could things look different then, but the two horses could easily be ranked in the opposite order if Sovereignty wins Saturday’s Jim Dandy as well as expected.
Then, with their opportunities closer to being equalised and their CVs of equal depth, the two races between them will play more heavily and Sovereignty will be ranked higher. It is interesting that Journalism started favourite to beat Sovereignty on both occasions, though it is highly doubtful he would next time.
Journalism did not skip the Preakness like Sovereignty but ran hard and won it. The Belmont may not have been a fair comparison, while the Derby before that was an unusual race in terms of pace and conditions.
Personally, I can easily see the argument that the horses should be ranked in the opposite order, but I also hope it is possible to understand why they are not: Journalism has posted five figures at the TRC 120+ level to Sovereignty’s two.
The algorithm behind TRC Global Rankings uses probabilistic reasoning to compare two horses because performance ratings are never set in stone, they are never deterministic. The deeper the CV, the more likely it is that a horse is truly of a certain talent, but we can’t be sure! The reason for this approach is because, on average, it produces more future winners.
Here, the computer thinks differently to all of us who have seen the lower-ranked horse prevail in the two high-profile meetings between them over a mile and a quarter, while Journalism is unbeaten in his other starts over shorter. Does that mean that the rankings is asserting that Journalism is the better horse? No.
Rivalries like this are great for racing. TRC Global Rankings are just doing their bit to stir the pot. Just until the Jim Dandy, at least.
So there you go. In short, Journalism’s overall body of work – as it stands, right now – remains a little bit deeper than that of Sovereignty. Even if he was beaten by Sovereignty in two of the biggest races in the US calendar.
Now the nuts and bolts: Journalism (#4 from #12, +153pt) moves into the top five, still led by Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising, who has now 13 weeks at #1.
(On a technical issue, it is worth noting that there will soon be wholesales changes at the top end as several Asian- and Australian-trained horses will automatically be removed from the rankings if they don’t run again before the mandatory 118-day cutoff since their most recent outing. How can a horse who hasn’t run fr four months lead what purports to be a current set of rankings? They will, of course, all be reinstated when they run again if they run to previous form levels.)
Another big mover from last week’s schedule was leading dirt sprinter Book’em Danno (#14 from #52, +214pt), who gets a hefty boost after overcoming a bump at the start to win the G2 Alfred G Vanderbilt at Saratoga.
Oaks winner Minnie Hauk (#26 from #208, +206pt) was businesslike enough (without looking especially impressive) in completing the Classic double at long odds-on at the Curragh.
• View the latest TRC Global Rankings for horses / jockeys / trainers / sires
Appleby and Buick dominant as Cinderella goes to the July ball at Newmarket
Delacroix redeems himself under ‘masterful ride’ from Ryan Moore
Calandagan silences the doubters to enter world top ten
Royal Ascot rankings update: ‘That was a great performance’ – Field Of Gold enters world top five
• Unlike traditional methods of racehorse rankings, TRC Global Rankings are a measure of an individual’s level of achievement over a rolling three-year period, providing a principled hierarchy of the leading horses, jockeys, trainers, owners and sires using statistical learning techniques. Racehorse rankings can be compared to similar exercises in other sports, like the golf’s world rankings or the ATP rankings in tennis.
They are formulated from the last three years of races we consider Group or Graded class all over the world and update automatically each week according to the quality of a horse’s performances and their recency, taking into account how races work out.