Epsom Derby horse-by-horse guide: why everything points to Pride Of Arras

Pride Of Arras: guaranteed stamina, best trial form and likely to improve. Photo: Dan Abraham / focusonracing.com

Graham Dench takes a detailed look at the Betfred Derby field – and reckons the Dante Stakes winner can spike the big guns from Ballydoyle and Godolphin

1 Al Wasl Storm (drawn 13)
Owen Burrows (trainer)/David Probert (jockey), 150-1 (best current odds)

Obscurely bred Chester maiden winner who has no chance on form, but stamina no problem and owner Ahmad Al Shaikh, also represented here by Green Storm, has had Derby seconds at 50-1 and 150-1.

2 Damysus (15)
John & Thady Gosden/James Doyle, 12-1

Made a winning debut on Tapeta at Southwell in December and has followed with two solid efforts in defeat in Derby trials at Sandown and York. No match for Pride of Arras in G2 Dante Stakes, but shaped very well nevertheless in a clear second, doing his best work at the finish. Stable’s previous Derby winners Benny The Dip and Golden Horn also prepped in the Dante, and he was given a feel of Epsom in a spin around the track with Dante fifth Nightwalker last week. Shapes as though he will stay and open to more improvement.

3 Delacroix (14)
Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore, 3-1f

Won only two of his five starts last year, but beat Stanhope Gardens and Nightwalker in G3 Autumn Stakes before going down by narrowest of margins in G1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster, the winners of which have won six Derbys. Has since forced his way to the top of the Ballydoyle pile with convincing wins in Ireland’s two main trials, beating his stable’s subsequent Chester Vase winner Lambourn from the front in G3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown before quickening well off a steady pace to justify very short odds in the C&D G3 formerly known as the Derrinstown Stud Trial. Shapes as though he will stay, but it’s not guaranteed as he’s by Dubawi out of the Breeders’ Cup Mile and Queen Anne winner Tepin, whose 1m6f G1 winner was by a much stronger stamina influence in Galileo. Would be trainer’s 11th winner.

4 Green Storm (8)
Charlie Johnston/Billy Loughnane, 200-1

A first Derby ride for teen prodigy Billy Loughnane but appeared to be outstayed by Tennessee Stud over 1m2f in G1 at Saint-Cloud last October and well beaten in Listed company on return. No realistic chance, but owner Ahmad Al Shaikh has a remarkable record with longshots here (see Al Wasl Storm).

5 Lambourn (10)
Aidan O’Brien/Wayne Lordan, 14-1

Not one of Aidan O’Brien’s high-flyers at two and no match for stablemate Delacroix in G3 Ballysax Stakes, but appreciated step up in trip to 1m4f in G3 Chester Vase next time and booked his place here with a convincing win over Lazy Griff. A strong stayer, and such proven stamina will be a big asset here. Unlikely to be far away.

6 Lazy Griff (3)
Charlie Johnston/Christophe Soumillon, 100-1

Improved for extra distance when second to Lambourn in Chester Vase on reappearance and has the assistance of Christophe Soumillon, who partnered him to G3 win at Chantilly last September. Otherwise hard to fancy.

7 Midak (4)
Francis Graffard/Mickael Barzalona, 16-1

Unbeaten French colt who was a supplementary entry at a cost of £75,000 on Monday to represent his late owner-breeder the Aga Khan in a Derby named this year in his honour. Unraced at two and needs to step up significantly on the form of his three wins this spring, the latest gained from the front in the G3 Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud, but an imposing individual who could well still have considerable untapped potential. Will be leading trainer Francis Graffard’s first Derby runner – the success in Britain last year of stablemates Goliath and Calandagan underline that he should not be underestimated.

8 New Ground (17)
Henri-Francois Devin/Alexis Pouchin, 50-1

A second supplementary entry from France. Won both of his starts at two but appears to have had his limitations exposed this year by third places in G3 and Listed company. Needs to find huge improvement for the extra distance, but represents Juddmonte, so unlikely to be any sort of frivolous entry.

9 Nightime Dancer (9)
Richard Hannon/Jamie Spencer, 150-1

Won Tapeta maiden over Derby trip at Southwell but no match for the O’Brien pair back on turf in Lingfield Derby Trial. Hard to fancy.

10 Nightwalker (5)
John & Thady Gosden/Tom Marquand, 25-1

Improved form when fifth to Pride Of Arras in G2 Dante Stakes at York, doing best work at finish following slow start. Likely to improve again for this longer trip and appeared to handle track when given a spin around Epsom with stablemate Damysus last week. First-time cheekpieces could help and might well outrun his odds, but hard to see him winning.

11 Pride Of Arras (16)
Ralph Beckett/Rossa Ryan, 5-1

Seen only once at two and wasn’t one of his stable’s main hopes for the Derby through the winter, even though he was ultimately impressive on that sole start in a seven-furlong Sandown maiden, powering clear up the hill after looking to be going nowhere three furlongs. Came in under the radar this spring, but no fluke whatsoever about his impressive win in York’s G2 Dante Stakes, which is traditionally the strongest Derby trial; he settled well off an indifferent pace before bursting through a wall of horses with a striking turn of foot. Looked good value for his 1¼-length defeat of the Gosdens’ Damysus, and had that colt's stablemate Nightwalker in fifth and favourite The Lion In Winter in sixth. While they are all open to improvement here, so is Pride Of Arras, especially with his stamina for this longer trip virtually assured. The least experienced in the field, but his trainer has no concerns on that front.

12 Rogue Impact (1)
James Owen/Luke Morris, 250-1

Beat Derby outsider Al Wasl Storm in Polytrack maiden over 1m4f at Lingfield in April but last of six on turf in Derby Trial at same course. Impossible to fancy.

13 Ruling Court (7)
Charlie Appleby/William Buick, 7-2

No obvious excuse for his sole defeat, when third behind The Lion In Winter in G3 Acomb Stakes at York last year, but he was hugely impressive in Sandown maiden and a Listed race at Meydan, and then his narrow 2,000 Guineas defeat of Field Of Gold was a performance from the very top drawer, even allowing for his having got first run on the subsequent easy winner of the Irish equivalent. Has his stamina to prove, but he’s by Triple Crown winner Justify, who had last year’s winner City Of Troy in his first crop, and the question through the winter was arguably more about whether he would have the speed for a mile than the stamina for 1m4f. Bids to give the stable a third Derby following Masar (only third in 2,000 Guineas) in 2018 and Adayar in 2021, and big chance if he stays.

14 Sea Scout (18)
Simon & Ed Crisford/Harry Davies, 100-1

Shock winner from Sunday’s Prix du Jockey Club fourth Trinity College of Epsom’s Derby Trial, but a bit too keen when down the field in the Dante. Plenty to find on that showing.

15 Stanhope Gardens (2)
Ralph Beckett/Hector Crouch, 16-1

Bred to excel over middle-distances at three and was stable’s number one hope for Derby through the winter after signing off at two with a neck second to Delacroix in G3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket. However, missed all of the Derby trials following a hiccup in preparation and his belated return against two inferior rivals over 1m at Salisbury was not that informative. Retains considerable potential over the extra half-mile and there’s unlikely to be as much between him and stable-companion Pride Of Arras as odds suggest.

16 Tennessee Stud (12)
Joseph O’Brien/Dylan Browne McMonagle, 33-1

Aimed here since beating Green Storm and one other in G1 over 1m2f at Saint-Cloud last October. Beaten nearly seven lengths in third behind Delacroix at Leopardstown last month, but steady pace wouldn’t have suited and again shaped like a stayer. Place possibilities at long odds.

17 The Lion In Winter (19)
Aidan O’Brien/Colin Keane, 6-1

Clear winter favourite for the Derby after winning a Curragh maiden and the G3 Acomb Stakes at York, latter with favourite Ruling Court only third. However, missed the Dewhurst with a stone bruise and was not ready in time for 2,000 Guineas. Reportedly still barely ready for belated reappearance in G2 Dante Stakes at York last month, where he was edgy in preliminaries, pulled hard, and was beaten with two furlongs to go, finishing in sixth behind a clutch of Derby opponents headed by Pride Of Arras. Derby odds have fluctuated wildly since, touching 12-1 last week, but O’Brien assures us that all is well and that he has come on considerably for the race. His last two Derby winners Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy bounced back from even bigger reappearance disappointments, albeit with deeper two-year-old form under their belts, and pedigree suggests he can stay. However, needs to settle and outside draw is unhelpful in this big field.

18 Tornado Alert (11)
Saeed Bin Suroor/Oisin Murphy, 33-1

Much improved when 50-1 fourth in 2,000 Guineas, keeping on after leading at steady pace until two out. It’s 30 years since his trainer won Derby with Lammtarra, but he still operates at a high level with much more limited resources. Doubtful stayer.

19 Tuscan Hills (6)
Raphael Freire/David Egan, 66-1

Comfortable winner in Listed company at Pontefract at two and beaten little more than four lengths in seventh in G2 Dante. By a miler, but granddam won the Oaks, so might stay; needs big improvement, however.

Graham Dench’s verdict

As usual, there is precious little previous form to go on over the full Derby distance, but plenty of clues can be gleaned as to stamina potential from pedigree and running style – not to mention the relatively new science of stride cadence – and they point to significant doubts over several of the market leaders, especially with rain in the forecast. If the 2,000 Guineas winner Ruling Court is as effective over another half-mile then he’ll be hard to beat, but it’s a big ‘if’. There are also worries on that score with Delacroix and The Lion In Winter, although Ryan Moore’s choice Delacroix looks rock-solid in other respects and both have to be feared given the stable’s extraordinary record here. The stamina exception among the favourites, however, is PRIDE OF ARRAS, who looks virtually guaranteed to stay and also boasts the most impressive ‘trial’ form, following his stylish win in the Dante, where on just his second racecourse appearance he showed a bright change of gear to beat several of these, headed by Damysus, who also shaped very well. On paper Lambourn is Ballydoyle’s third string, but that hasn’t hindered others from the stable here and his stamina is guaranteed. He and the selection’s stablemate Stanhope Gardens, who looks another certain stayer, have good chances of making the frame. Longshots have been placed surprisingly often, and Tennessee Stud looks the pick of this year’s outsiders.