An expert look at how the Kentucky Derby was won and lost at a sloppy Churchill Downs – and what it means for the future
It was a rainy day in Louisville for the 151st Kentucky Derby so the Churchill Downs main track was a sloppy mess – but the form horses came to the fore and this looks a race to be positive about, especially with the next two legs of the Triple Crown in mind.
Grande (reported cracked heel) and Rodriguez (minor foot bruise) missed out, allowing ‘also-eligible’ Baeza into the field. But the most notable absentee was Florida Derby winner Tappan Street, who suffered a condylar fracture before the final field was drawn and whose connections must now be wondering what might have been.
There was a fast, contested pace: 22.81, 46.23 (23.42), 1:10.78 (24.55), 1:36.84 (26.06) for a final time of 2:02.31 (25.47). After three-quarters-of-a-mile, the first four finishers were positioned 17th, 11th, 12th and 19th (of 19) respectively.
Horse-by-horse analysis
1st Sovereignty had been shaping well while being faced with less-than-ideal tests at Gulfstream Park, most recently finishing second in the Florida Derby. He’d won the G3 Street Sense as a two-year-old on his only previous start under the Twin Spires – that form worked out well – and he duly improved for the return to Churchill Downs, with its long straight ideal for his late-running style. The greater stamina test over this strongly run ten furlongs helped as well and he made a sustained run from well back to outstay the favourite, who sat a bit closer to the speed.
Partnering his first Derby winner, Junior Alvarado was back aboard Sovereignty after missing the Florida Derby through injury. “He broke good,” said the jockey. Probably the third or fourth jump after the break, the horse next to me cut in front of me so I had to check a little bit. I just hoped he didn’t lose a shoe with the way the track is.
“Going to the first turn I tried to save ground in the first turn. When I turned to the backside, he was traveling beautifully. When we hit the five-eighths pole he said he was ready. I didn’t want to get too excited. When we turned for home, I got him in the clear and showed his stuff.”
Although no firm decision has been made, the Preakness on May 17 surely has to be next for Sovereignty, but the sharper test over the slightly shorter trip (9½ furlongs) at Pimlico won’t be ideal for this strong stayer.
This was a first Kentucky Derby triumph for Godolphin and completed a famous double for the owners following Good Cheer’s Kentucky Oaks success some 24 hours earlier. Both of them are homebreds, and this was a record-tying third Derby winner for sire Into Mischief after Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021). Into Mischief is the fifth sire to have three winners of this, but the first since Calumet's great stallion Bull Lea in the mid-20th century.
It was a second win in the race for trainer Bill Mott after Country House was awarded the 2019 Derby via disqualification.
2nd Journalism was sent off favourite having impressed with two wins at Santa Anita this year, and he overcame some early trouble to have his chance, briefly looking like a winner when making his bid on the final turn. But having nosed to the front in the stretch fr
om a midfield position, he just couldn’t resist a strong-staying rival who had sat further off the hot pace.
Jockey Umberto Rispoli said he had “a beautiful trip” and was simply beaten by a better horse on the day, but Journalism will have strong claims of reversing form if given his chance in the Preakness. The sharper test at Pimlico looks more in his favour. As for the wet track at Churchill Downs, it’s impossible to know if that hindered him.
3rd Baeza was runner-up to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and would have reversed form in a few more strides. He was alongside the winner on the final turn and making a similar move, before meeting some traffic and losing ground. It was notable he galloped out past the first two after the line (also galloped out well in the Santa Anita Derby).
Baeza is a big horse, a May foal who’s still finding his way, and the wet track probably wasn’t ideal, so this was a mighty run all considered. The Preakness was mentioned as a target had he not got into the Derby, but trainer John Shirreffs ruled out Pimlico and in any event the Belmont Stakes – which his half-brother Dornoch won last year – over ten furlongs at Saratoga in June looks the play now. He could come on a bundle again over the next five weeks.
4th Final Gambit emerges with credit on his dirt debut (previous runs on synthetics and turf), keeping on from last. He had a troubled start, but he lacks early pace anyway and sitting out the back was no bad thing for him all considered. He could be one in due course for the Dubai World Cup, which his trainer won this year with Hit Show, who was fifth in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
5th Owen Almighty ran in this when many (including this writer) thought he’d be better off in the Pat Day Mile on the undercard and he deserves a ton of credit for faring best of those who raced on the speed, briefly leading in the stretch before fading, showing surprising stamina even in being beaten nine lengths.
6th Burnham Square had come from last to win the Blue Grass at Keeneland. This time he sat closer to the pace, only to get stuck behind the weakening Admire Daytona (finished last) on the final turn. He did well to find some momentum to finish off his race and looks like having more to give.
7th Sandman didn’t go on from his Arkansas Derby win. The way this unfolded should have suited his off-the-pace style, but maybe he didn’t care for the off track.
8th East Avenue struggled a bit with the track according to his jockey Manny Franco.
9th Chunk Of Gold ran okay without being good enough.
10th Tiztastic lacked the speed to challenge and could find no more after running into traffic in the straight.
11th Coal Battle was twice short of room but he wasn’t good enough anyway.
12th Luxor Cafe was strong in the market and this Japanese-trained colt overcame a troubled start to have some sort of chance. However, his finish was surprisingly weak.
13th Neoequos was only one place behind Sovereignty in the Florida Derby, but this time he was badly bumped by Citizen Bull leaving the gates and he did too much in pressing that rival up front.
14th Publisher didn’t threaten his maiden status.
15th Citizen Bull caused some trouble when darting right out of the inside gate, and last year’s champion juvenile was pressed through strong fractions before fading. Jockey Martin Garcia said the horse felt uncomfortable on the mud.
16th American Promise was messed around at the start before doing too much on the speed.
17th Render Judgment was out of his depth.
18th Flying Mohawk didn’t handle the track. “He’s a turf horse,” said jockey Joe Ramos.
19th Admire Daytona found this a whole lot tougher than when a front-running winner of the UAE Derby, meeting some interference out of the gates and being unable to dominate this time, before weakening badly on the final turn. Jockey Christophe Lemaire said: “He just lost his action and motivation.”
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