Ron Wood takes a forensic look at the Kentucky Derby field – and comes up with a confident selection
1. Citizen Bull
Bob Baffert (trainer)/Martin Garcia (jockey), 20-1 (morning line)
Front-runner. Last year’s champion two-year-old but unconvincing this term. Yes, he defeated Rodriguez in a one-mile G3, but the time was ordinary and he disappointed behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. Had excuses that day (wasn’t fully fit after two months off and was unable to dominate) but the only way he wins this is if he and Rodriguez (same connections) can control a pace to suit, which is unlikely.
2. Neoequos
Saffie Joseph/Flavien Prat, 30-1
Prominent racer. Behind Sovereignty in two Derby preps at Gulfstream. Hard to see how he can win this.
3. Final Gambit
Brad Cox/Luan Machado, 30-1
Late runner. They didn’t think he was a dirt horse, starting him on turf before switching to the all-weather. Most recently, came from last to win the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks over nine furlongs at Turfway Park (modest time). Has more stamina than many, but this surface switch in such a competitive race will be a culture shock and he most likely doesn’t have the speed to cope.
4. Rodriguez
Bob Baffert/Mike Smith, 12-1
Front-runner. Entitled to be improving seeing as he’s a late May foal (youngest horse in the line-up) and his sire Authentic won the Kentucky Derby for the same connections in 2020 when the race was delayed until September. However, he was allowed an easy lead while going the shortest route from the inside gate when winning the nine-furlong G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct (blinkers off), yet he still didn’t run super fast on speed figures. This will ask more of him.
5. American Promise
D. Wayne Lukas/Nik Juarez, 30-1
Prominent racer. Thrashed Render Judgment in the nine-furlong Virginia Derby, a new qualifying race, at Colonial Downs in March, but the time was ordinary. Must do way more now.
6. Admire Daytona
Yukihiro Kato/Christophe Lemaire, 30-1
Prominent racer. Twice behind Luxor Cafe in Japan, but beaten only a nose on the first occasion. Most recently a front-running winner of the 9.5f G2 UAE Derby, but a much higher level of form is required now.
7. Luxor Cafe
Noriyuki Hori/Joao Moreira, 15-1
Races in touch with the leaders. Well bred and has won his last four starts in Japan, looking particularly good in the nine-furlong Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama on his latest outing. However, the time was slower than a minor contest (for older horses) on the same card. Has tended to race wide, whereas now he’ll be stuck behind runners and facing a lot of kickback.
8. Journalism
Michael McCarthy/Umberto Rispoli, 3-1
Races in touch with the leaders. Big type who has gears and yet looks like a stayer and has won all four starts around two turns. Earned a 108 speed figure on the respected Beyer scale for winning the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita in March, putting him upwards of seven points clear of this field. Coolmore bought into him after that race. Next time, he got ‘only’ a 102 in the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby, but he overcame traffic problems to reel in Baeza and that number is still better than the others have managed. Has been taking a lot of kickback so looks well primed for this test. The only worry is that he had a hard race just four weeks ago, but he’s been impressing work watchers since arriving at Churchill Downs.
9. Burnham Square
Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez, 12-1
Late runner. Steadily progressive, most recently improving to win nine-furlong G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland, coming from last to deny East Avenue on the wire. The time of that race was ordinary, but he should be suited by this extra furlong.
10. Grande
Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez, 20-1
Races in touch with the leaders. Two minor wins at Gulfstream before promising second behind Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. While the winner was enjoying an easy lead, this colt was wide throughout and was shuffled back on the first turn, before making a move down the back straight and sustaining his bid, showing lots of stamina over the nine-furlong trip. Might not have been the barn’s number one Derby hope, even as recently as the final preps, but he’s the one who has made it to Louisville and he’ll relish this stamina test.
11. Flying Mohawk
Whit Beckman/Joseph Ramos, 30-1
Late runner. Most recently second to Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby on the all-weather at Turfway. Highly unlikely to be winning this on his dirt debut. Blinkers off.
12. East Avenue
Brendan Walsh/Manny Franco, 20-1
Front-runner. Sent off favourite for November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, having won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, but lost his chance when stumbling out of the gates. Looked a write-off when well beaten at Fair Grounds on his February return, but came back to life with blinkers added when a battling second in nine-furlong Blue Grass at Keeneland in April, just being denied by Burnham Square. Had been off for seven weeks so may build on that, but will do well to get his own way up front against the two Baffert runners.
13. Publisher
Steve Asmussen/Irad Ortiz, 30-1
Late runner with no wins from seven starts; Brokers Tip in 1933 was the last maiden to win the Derby. With blinkers added, came from a long way behind for second to Sandman (also raced off the pace) in a strongly run nine-furlong Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Not fast enough.
14. Tiztastic
Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario, 20-1
Late runner. Suited by the 9.5f stamina test when improving to win G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, his first start under Joel Rosario, but didn’t run particularly fast.
15. Render Judgment
Ken McPeek/Julien Leparoux, 30-1
Races midpack. Goes for last year’s winning barn. Maiden win came here last October (8½ furlongs), but has since been beaten in five stakes races. Speed figures are steadily trending in the right direction, but this requires huge improvement.
16. Coal Battle
Lonnie Briley/Juan Vargas, 30-1
Races midpack. Took in four Derby trials, winning three of them before finishing third behind Sandman and Publisher in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby. Shaped a bit better than it may have looked then, as he was too headstrong and chased an overly strong pace, with the first two finishers coming from further behind, but still has loads to find on speed figures.
17. Sandman
Mark Casse/Jose Ortiz, 6-1
Late runner. Cost $1.2m as a two-year-old. Improved to win nine-furlong Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, staying on from well back. He lugged to his right when in front in the straight, hinting at attitude but also that he had a bit left in the tank, and the time wasn’t bad. Did have the ideal set up that day, but if he finds the leaders overdoing it again he could just keep rolling.
18. Sovereignty
Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado, 5-1
Late runner. Has yet to run particularly fast on speed figures but this Godolphin colt won an 8½ furlong G3 here in October, with Tiztastic five lengths behind in second and Sandman another neck away in third. Did well to follow up in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on his March return, and although then only second in the G1 nine-furlong Florida Derby (slow time), the race didn’t unfold to suit. Reunited with Junior Alvarado, who missed the last race through injury. Has reportedly done well since moving to Churchill Downs and he will be suited by this stamina test. It’s just a question of whether he’s fast enough.
19. Chunk Of Gold
Ethan West/Jareth Loveberry, 30-1
Races midpack. Runner-up in a couple of trials, most recently behind Tiztastic in the 9.5f Louisiana Derby, having raced closer to the pace than the winner. Needs to do way more now.
20. Owen Almighty
Brian Lynch/Javier Castellano, 30-1
(Probably) races in touch with the leaders. Maiden win came here (5.5f). Front-running winner of the 8½-furlong G3 Tampa Bay Derby, but chased East Avenue before fading in the nine-furlong Blue Grass at Keeneland most recently. Mixed messages from connections as to whether he’ll revert to front-running tactics, or be ridden more patiently. Either way, he’s unlikely to have the stamina to feature when it matters. Starts from the widest gate.
Also Eligible: Baeza
John Shirreffs/Flavien Prat, 12-1
Races in touch with the leaders. $1.2m yearling; big horse, a May foal, half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby hero Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. His one shot at earning a spot in this field came in the Santa Anita Derby and he ran a promising second to Journalism, just being picked off after hanging left in the straight. But the qualification points were reduced due to there being only five runners, so he’s stuck on the outside looking in. If he gets a run, he has the ability to figure. Maybe he’s not mature enough (the hanging left is a bit disconcerting), but he galloped out clear of Journalism after the line at Santa Anita. If he gets in the race, he is the one for the exacta.
Ron Wood’s verdict
As a few of these like to press on, it seems everyone is expecting a fast pace – but it was the same story heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile only for East Avenue to fluff his lines coming out of gates, leaving the three Bob Baffert runners to control the pace and they were taken gate-to-wire by Citizen Bull. That one and the same connections’ Rodriguez will look to dominate this race. The inside gate tends to be troublesome (no Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986), but it could see Citizen Bull cutting the corners, with Rodriguez also drawn to save ground. Still, the feeling is there will be enough pace pressure to make this an honest enough test and anyway JOURNALISM has the tactical gears to keep the leaders in his sights. He’s the best horse in the race and the only form danger is Baeza, who needs a runner to drop out if he’s to make the field proper. Grande has improvement in him – and bundles of stamina – while Sandman and Sovereignty look best of the late-running types.
Ron Wood’s 1-2-3-4
1 Journalism
2 Baeza (also eligible)
3 Grande
4 Sandman
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website and the Keeneland website
‘An amazing style and an amazing horse’ – Journalism maintains pole position
American Promise: D. Wayne Lukas is back on the Derby trail – but the negatives cannot be denied
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