In the latest of his weekly Kentucky Derby updates, Ron Wood suggests that the addition of a 50-1 longshot to the field is potentially more significant than it might look
It’s that stage of the Kentucky Derby build-up – less than two weeks out from the big race – where news seems to be dropping all the time and the most significant update of recent days is that Owen Almighty will take his place in the line-up.
This might not seem a big deal. After all, he has next to no chance of winning; he’s a 50-1 shot with the international bookies.
However, this horse adds even more pace to the race as he's going to be looking for the early lead, which is a potentially significant boost to the chances of the late-running contenders who need the leaders to overdo it.
Owen Almighty didn’t lead on his most recent start at Keeneland in the Blue Grass, instead stalking East Avenue before dropping out to finish in a share of sixth and last place. But the Bryan Lynch-trained runner began the race quickest of all, without his jockey having to ask him, whereas East Avenue had to be driven to get to the front by the first turn.
There’s little doubt Owen Almighty could have led the Blue Grass field had his jockey chosen to do so, but they were trying to ration his stamina for the nine-furlong distance.
Hunter Rankin, president of Flying Dutchmen Breeding and Racing, owners of Owen Almighty, has since told the Daily Racing Form their horse is “better on the lead”.
Owen Almighty had won the 8½-furlong Tampa Bay Derby from the front. He has little hope of seeing out the ten-furlong distance regardless of how he’s ridden, but speed is his weapon.
Of course, East Avenue is also in the Derby field. He was beaten just a nose in the Blue Grass, battling on before being caught in the final stride by Burnham Square, who challenged from last place.
It's possible East Avenue won’t be ridden quite so forcefully this time to try and give him more of a chance to see out the extra furlong of the Kentucky Derby, especially if others are determined to go forward.
But then again, East Avenue had been off for seven weeks prior to the Blue Grass, so he should be fitter for the Derby, and he did respond to the aggressive tactics that day, even though he was just denied.
Don’t forget, this horse was a front-running winner of the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in October.
There are also some blemishes on his record when things haven’t gone his way, so it seems they need to be making his mind up for him. Manny Franco has been booked for the task.
It might also be worth considering that East Avenue's owners, Godolphin, also have the late-running Sovereignty, who'll benefit from a strongly run race.
So, Owen Almighty and East Avenue look like being part of a race within a race for the early bragging rights, and they won’t be alone in that mini battle.
Mike Smith, talking about his front-running Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez, has told the Daily Racing Form: “If they want to be in front of him, they’ll have to run to get it.”
So, that’s three front-runners. Any others? Well, Citizen Bull led Rodriguez when winning the Bob Lewis at Santa Anita in February and his two G1 victories as a juvenile were gained from the front. He disappointed when unable to dominate in the Santa Anita Derby on his most recent start.
However, Citizen Bull had his usual blinkers removed for a recent workout and will reportedly go without them in the Derby, hinting that he may not be ridden so forcefully this time.
Moreover, Rodriguez and Citizen Bull are stablemates in the Baffert barn, so it wouldn’t make sense for them to be taking each other on for the early lead.
Yet there are other possible pace factors. Built has drawn into the main field in recent days and his best performance came when winning the Gun Runner Stakes going 8½ furlongs from the front at Fair Grounds in December. That said, he’s also a possible – and is probably more likely – for the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard.
The final pace angle to consider is the Japanese-trained Admire Daytona, who won the UAE Derby from the front, doing well considering he was never given much peace on the lead.
However, he raced off the speed in earlier races and it’ll be a surprise if he’s the quickest at any stage of the Run for the Roses.
In conclusion, there are six horses who’d ideally like to be front at the first turn.
Even removing from the equation Citizen Bull, Built and Admire Daytona who, for one reason or another, may not be forcing the issue, that still leaves Owen Almighty, East Avenue and Rodriguez who’ll probably be sent forward with purpose from the gates.
As such, this looks like being a strongly run race. Good news for the closers – but what about probable favourite Journalism? Well, he just looks bombproof.
Journalism won’t be in the early heat of the race – he won’t be making his move until the final turn – but he has the gears to keep the leaders in his sights while getting a jump on the later-running types. And he’s the fastest horse in the race in overall terms.
In other Derby news, scratch River Thames (being aimed at the Preakness) and Madaket Road (Pat Day Mile).
All of the moving and shaking means the promising Baeza is one step closer to making the field and the excellent Flavien Prat has been booked to ride him should he make the cut.
However, while John Shirreffs plans on sending the horse to Louisville, this half-brother to 2023 Derby hero Mage still needs others to drop out, being the third reserve at the time of writing.
It doesn’t help Baeza’s claims that Neoequos, the first horse on the Kentucky Derby waiting list, is an intended runner.
California Burrito is another one back in the Derby fold, but he sits one place behind Baeza on the ‘also-eligible’ list and has no obvious chance regardless.
One final note, ‘Magic Man’ Joao Moreira will keep the ride on another of the Japanese contenders, Luxor Cafe, having partnered this American Pharoah colt to victory at Nakayama in March.
Derby rundown: the putative field for Churchill Downs (updated April 21)
- Burnham Square Ian Wilkes (trainer), Brian Hernandez (jockey)
- Sandman Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz
- Journalism Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli
- Rodriguez Bob Baffert, Mike Smith
- Tiztastic Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario
- Tappan Street Brad Cox, Luis Saez
- Sovereignty Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado
- Final Gambit Brad Cox, Luan Machado
- Coal Battle Lonnie Briley, Juan Vargas
- Chunk Of Gold Ethan West, Jareth Loveberry
- Citizen Bull Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia
- Owen Almighty Bryan Lynch, Javier Castellano
- East Avenue Brendan Walsh, Manny Franco
- Publisher Steve Asmussen, Irad Ortiz
- American Promise D. Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez
- Flying Mohawk Whit Beckman, Joseph Ramos
- Grande Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez
- Built Wayne Catalano, TBC
- Admire Daytona Yukihiro Kato, Christophe Lemaire
- Luxor Cafe Noriyuki Hori, Joao Moreira
- Neoequos Saffie Joseph, TBC (also eligible)
- Render Judgment Ken McPeek, TBC (also eligible)
- Baeza John Shirreffs, Flavien Prat (also eligible)
- California Burrito Tom Drury, Irving Moncada (also eligible)
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website and the Keeneland website
‘An amazing style and an amazing horse’ – Journalism maintains pole position
American Promise: D. Wayne Lukas is back on the Derby trail – but the negatives cannot be denied
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