World #1 is on the line in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational on dirt at Gulfstream Park in Miami tomorrow (Saturday).
This is not the case every time the incumbent takes to the track. Sometimes, the world champion’s form is too established and there isn’t a suitable candidate among the opposition.
Here, KNICKS GO is the most likely winner – but he is decidedly vulnerable. Look at the table of runners for the Pegasus and access the column second from right, which evaluates each horse’s array of performance figures on the same scale as the newly published World’s Best Racehorse Rankings:
You should notice that Knicks Go has one rating – 131 – which is 5pts higher than his others. This is what he was awarded by TRC Computer Race Ratings for the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, his latest start and an awesome performance which fairly saw him ascend to world #1. His next best three figures, however, are all 126 – wins in this race last year, the G1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in 2020 and the latest running of the G1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga.
Is Knicks Go really a 131 horse? Or was this a flattering representation of his merit, perhaps owing to the favourable ride he received from Joel Rosario at Del Mar?
This situation is exactly why TRC Global Rankings rank horses on the entire portfolio of their ratings, rather than just on the best of them, as many other systems do, including the WBRR. For the moment, the computer thinks there is enough support from all those 126s to believe that Knicks Go was capable of a bigger figure, given the quality of the opposition in the Classic (he was chased home by a trio of 3-year-olds – Medina Spirit, Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie – from a crop we consider to be strong).
But what if Life Is Good beats him here? The current world #14 is lightly raced and has won four of his five Graded stakes (in the other, he ran a great race over seven furlongs off a long layoff). The computer produced a rating of 129 for his Breeders’ Cup Mile win, but that assessment is associated with a lot more uncertainty over the upside.
So, if one horse has upside and a higher-rated rival may have peaked out, we have ourselves a horse race.
Can Life Is Good do it? Well, the son of world #1 dirt sire Into Mischief did not look to be stopping when he won the Mile. He has an extra furlong to tackle here, whereas Knicks Go is stepping back in trip.
As for tactics, Knicks Go surely has to force it, partly because of that proven stamina and the fact he is breaking from the inside post. He cannot drop in and allow a horse who enjoys dominating to do just that. Does Life Is Good even have the versatility to follow a lead and pass a rival late? It must be doubted.
So, while the opposition looks horribly overmatched here – this isn’t a good field overall for a race with $3 million on offer, there is a scenario where an upset could occur. This race is going to be run at a very strong pace and the two favourites are certain to hook up. It looks most unlikely any other horse would be good enough to mow them down, but this is horseracing. Anything can happen.
The most satisfying scenario is a pitched battle between Knicks Go and Life Is Good. Let the best horse win. As Knicks Go heads into retirement, there could not be a more intriguing send off at this time of year.