Four winners in seven turf races last year at Keeneland – all four Saturday races, no less – made the 37th Breeders’ Cup a very happy place for the annual European raiding party.
Del Mar, though, offers vastly more alien environment: Southern California climate, tight turns, short straight even by U.S. standards and a rather less forgiving sun-baked turf surface. And, lest it be forgotten, only the Joseph O’Brien-trained Iridessa spared the visitors’ blushes when a whitewash was on the cards at Santa Anita the last time the Breeders’ Cup came to the west coast in 2019.
That said, the Euros fared well on the only other occasion Del Mar hosted the 2-day championships in 2017, when three of the six turf winners came across the Atlantic in Mendelssohn (Juvenile Turf), Wuheida (Filly & Mare Turf) and Talismanic (Turf).
Europe’s 2021 contingent arrives with justifiably high hopes of at least equalling that effort via several high-profile runners, headed by world #8 Tarnawa, who holds a favourite’s chance as she bids for back-to-back triumphs in the Turf, a race that is so often marked for export.
The Aga Khan’s mare is supported by fellow 2020 winners Audarya and Glass Slippers among a plethora of G1 winners, such as Space Blues and Ballydoyle Classic winners Love and Mother Earth, plus the usual phalanx of 2-year-olds.
Before we examine the Euro challenge in depth, a note from elsewhere since, with Lasix entirely absent for the first time, there is also a markedly increased presence from Japan.
For such a powerful bloodstock nation with a formidable global reputation, an abysmal 0-for-13 BC record is something of an anomaly. They’ve never really had a serious crack at the Breeders’ Cup, which explains why they’ve never even managed a placed horse. Now, with Loves Only You the nation’s best-ever chance of success - in the Filly & Mare Turf, could 2021 be the year Japan finally arrives on America’s biggest stage?
Europe-based trainers with more than one win
JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
European record: 0 win 3 races (0%)
Only bit-part players, with strong-looking European teams just picking up the pieces for third and fourth in both the inaugural event at Churchill Downs and last year at Keeneland. In truth, they never really landed any sort of blow on either occasion as the U.S. winners broke like bullets from a gun and made all – and it was even worse the last time the BC was in California at Santa Anita in 2019, when they were run off their feet and duly finished 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12.
Star turn
Despite some speedy 2-year-olds, this is a whole new ball game for Europeans, for whom this will be a case of snooze and you lose. They’ve also lost Royal Ascot winner Quick Suzy, ruled out with a temperature and set to stay in the U.S. with Paddy Gallagher. Vertiginous may outrun likely odds for Brian Meehan, who has won two BC races in the past. This daughter of Oasis Dream couldn’t win in her first five starts and has plenty to find on ratings, but there was a lot to like about her listed win at Ayr last time, when she was dropped to 5f and made all. Smart effort, and she gets a top U.S. jock.
Support team
Hierarchy is another who could offer value, at least for exotics, now that he cuts back in trip. “This horse is very much a sprinter,” says trainer Hugo Palmer. “He’s a very fast horse and he’s improved with every single run this year.” Molecomb Stakes winner Armor is clear pick of the visitors on form after coming third in the G1 Middle Park – but will he really appreciate this cut back to a sharp 5f? Similar sentiments apply to Go Bears Go (Johnny Velazquez a big plus). Speedy Twilight Jet outclassed G3 rivals last time dropped back to 5f at Newmarket, though his trainer is describing this as a “bonus” at the end of a ten-race campaign.
Home comforts
Wesley Ward in pole position again as he bids for a hat-trick after Four Wheel Drive and Golden Pal. Royal Ascot runner-up Twilight Gleaming is vying for favouritism with 4-time winner Averly Jane (working with Golden Pal), who has persuasive claims after setting a stakes-record on her turf debut last month at Keeneland. “She’s got a tremendous amount of speed, and she just keeps going,” said jockey Tyler Gaffalione. “She’s one of the fastest I’ve ever been on. She almost throws you in the back seat. She’s a lot of fun.” Chicago-based One Timer has been firing bullets since making all on turf in the G3 Speakeasy.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
European record: 2 wins 13 races (15.4%)
Nowhere near as formidable as might be imagined given the annual firepower. French-trained Flotilla in 2012 and Charlie Hills’s Chriselliam a year later are the only visitors to have scored. Despite plenty of runners, Aidan O’Brien has never got closer than Heart Shaped, edged out by Maram in the first running in 2008; subsequent Guineas winner Mother Earth was also second 12 months ago, when compatriot Miss Amulet took third.
Star turn
An open race. While none of the home team boasts rock-solid credentials, it is equally the case that there is no obvious standout among the European party. Mise En Scene’s second-season trainer James Ferguson, the son of Darley/Godolphin stalwart John Ferguson, broke his G1 duck in France recently with El Bodegon. This Siyouni filly ran better than her finishing position suggests when staying-on for fourth after losing position mid-race in the G1 Fillies’ Mile at Ascot. The worry is she may just lack the toe for this specific test – and the draw’s not great, either.
Support team
Hello You, for whom John Velazquez is booked, has a nice draw and has twice had Friday’s rival Cachet behind her, including latest start in the Rockfel, although that was hardly a vintage renewal. The extra furlong also raises questions given her sprinter’s pedigree. French-trained Malavath is tricky to assess but plenty must be taken on trust as she is up in trip after last month’s soft-ground win over 6f at Chantilly.
Home comforts
Chad Brown has dominated this with five wins; he fields another strong candidate in Consumer Spending, who looked useful winning a black-type race at Laurel at the start of October with a stalk-and-pounce effort. West-coast filly Cairo Memories has been smashing up lesser rivals and has already won at Del Mar, while Pizza Bianca brings in the top Beyer for her troubled second in the G1 Natalma. Brad Cox-trained Aunt Pearl was the seventh U.S.-trained filly in a row to score 12 months ago; after eyeing the Juvenile Turf Sprint, Cox will be hoping Bubble Rock can stretch out the extra couple of furlongs.
JUVENILE TURF
European record: 8 wins from 14 races (57.1%)
With the obvious exception of the Turf, no other BC race has been as kind to transatlantic visitors – though the last two have stayed in the U.S. Special reference must be made to Aidan O’Brien, with four wins and five seconds, including Battleground in 2020.
Star turn
Got to be one of the most obvious chances for European success over the weekend, with Charlie Appleby the man to fear in a race he has won twice. Both his runners (both sons of Dubawi) have proper claims. Albahr will be well known to a North American audience via his ready success in the G1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine under Friday’s rider, Frankie Dettori, but Modern Games is the choice of stable jockey William Buick and has a clear edge on his Godolphin stablemate on European form after running on well to win the G3 Tattersalls Stakes last time at Newmarket. With a 3-5 career record, he is still on the improve. The inside draw always raises a degree of concern, but otherwise he could be one of the bets of the meeting if the U.S. morning line is anything to go on.
Support team
Dubawi Legend’s big reputation was confirmed when he was beaten only by Native Trail, the best 2-year-old in Europe, in last month’s Dewhurst Stakes, Britain’s G1 championship event in the division. While he is clear best of these on ratings, a car-park draw hasn’t done him any favours – he’d be favourite otherwise. Since Mendelssohn triumphed at Del Mar in 2017, Aidan O’Brien has saddled beaten favourites in the last three editions with Arizona, Anthony Van Dyck and Battleground. Glounthorne’s form isn’t up to their level.
Home comforts
Home team lost its captain when Annapolis was ruled out last week through an ankle injury – but, if you fancied him, then Portfolio Company will be on your radar as he was a game runner-up to that horse in the G2 Pilgrim at Belmont. That said, he’s now been beaten twice since his debut. Dakota Gold drew away impressively with a 4-wide move last time at Monmouth, while Tiz The Bomb is 2-for-2 on turf. Grafton Street is a progressive Coolmore son of War Front, and his chance has been highlighted here.
TURF SPRINT
European record: 1 win from 13 races (7.7%)
Before 2020, no European horse had made the first three here since Diabolical finished second for Godolphin in the first running – which meant trends players must have come seriously unstuck when Glass Slippers broke the hoodoo at Keeneland.
Star turn
Glass Slippers comes to life in the autumn, as she demonstrated 12 months ago at Keeneland. She arrives in good heart after another prominent display in horrendous heavy ground in the Prix de l’Abbaye, although she was only third to fellow traveller A Case Of You in a race she had won in 2019 (also second in 2020). More of a concern is that Keeneland was 5½f, whereas this is a sharper 5f on even faster ground. She may not get there in time; in fact, as admirable as she is, she may not even be her trainer’s principal contender and the inside draw is a concern as she will doubtless be swamped early.
Support team
Labelled “as good a horse as I’ve ever trained” by Kevin Ryan after winning the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock, Glass Slippers’s stable companion Emaraaty Ana could easily prove best of the Europeans. This gelded son of Shamardal travels like a dream behind a strong pace – the key is dropping him in, says Ryan. The pertinent question, however, is whether he’ll be able to pick up U.S. speedballs over a lightning-fast 5f. Irish trainer Ado McGuinness reckons last-gasp Abbaye winner A Case Of You is “a better horse around a bend”. He’s also better at 5f than further, but all his wins have come on soft or heavy.
Home comforts
Yet to win this, Wesley Ward launches a 3-pronged attack headed by Golden Pal, bidding to follow up last year’s Keeneland triumph in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Though he has never quite lived up the hype on his visits to Europe and even the value of his U.S. form is questionable, he’s won his last 4 in the States, easily handling Dubai winner Extravagant Kid last time in the G2 Woodford at Keeneland. He’s fast – and he might be hard to peg back here. Local supplementary entry Lieutenant Dan is unbeaten in three starts (two at Del Mar) since returning from a layoff with “front-end issues”.
MAKER’S MARK FILLY & MARE TURF
European record: 10 wins from 22 races (45.5%)
Always a race where the Euros fancy their chances, and Audarya followed up Iridessa’s victory at Santa Anita in 2019 with more of the same 12 months ago to make it four wins in the last five years for the visitors. Even so, the prize has stayed at home five times in the last decade – mainly thanks to the estimable Chad Brown, who has won four.
Star turn
Go back 12 months and it would have been unthinkable for Love not to be favourite in this field after her spectacular dual-Classic-winning 3-year-old campaign. Problem is, she has been below par this term, beaten three times since outpointing Audarya in a courageous effort at Royal Ascot that might have left a mark. Seemingly under a malaise, she missed other intended targets this autumn and even this race wasn’t her first choice – Aidan O’Brien (never won a BC fillies’ race) switched her from the Turf to ensure some of his other horses got a run there. She is still on top according to the ratings.
Support team
Visitors from Europe provide half the field, and while some of them look out of their depth in class terms, defending champ Audarya is running at least as well as she was before flooring Rushing Fall at Keeneland, though it is worth noting this is a furlong and a half longer owing to Del Mar’s configuration. She looked sure to win the Prix de l’Opera before getting swamped in desperate ground in the final furlong – and remember, she was only third to Tarnawa in the same race in 2020 before her BC success. Though Rougir’s trainer avers she’ll like faster ground, the Opera winner has never run on anything faster than good and all her best runs come with considerable give. But don’t forget Loves Only You, whose Dubai form gives her a serious shout for Japan.
Home comforts
Given the strength of the overseas contingent, it might be significant that the ante-post market in Britain has been headed by Bill Mott’s filly War Like Goddess. Blessed with a strong finishing kick, this daughter of former turf champ English Channel has won her last four, all of them Graded stakes, culminating in a really comfortable odds-on win in the G1 Flower Bowl over the BC trip of 1m3f.
FANDUEL MILE presented by PDJF
European record: 15 wins from 37 races (40.5%)
One of the more surprising BC trends has been undone a bit in recent years. In 2018 at Churchill Downs, Expert Eye was the first British- or Irish-trained horse to win since Ridgewood Pearl at Belmont Park in 1995 – and then Order Of Australia led home a magnificent 1-2-3 for Aidan O’Brien 12 months ago at Keeneland. Both those races were in Kentucky, of course; World Approval thwarted the raiders four years ago at Del Mar, and Uni did the same at Santa Anita in 2019. France has provided ten winners, among them Miesque and Goldikova; again, though, they go unrepresented in 2021.
Star turn
Britain’s champion trainer-elect, Charlie Appleby, nominated Space Blues for this as soon as he had cut down his rivals with an impressive closing burst to win the G1 Prix de la Foret. Although the BC Mile can be an absolute law unto itself – a maximum field hurtling around tight turns on rock-hard ground is not one for a faint heart, and hard-luck stories abound – the 5-year-old has been a strong favourite ever since. And this is despite his not having raced at a mile for 2½ years, when he was beaten at odds-on in a minor contest at Nottingham. The Dubawi colt has the necessary speed coupled with the sort of acceleration that plays well on the Stateside lawn. Sure, it was heavy ground at ParisLongchamp, but they don’t get much of that in Riyadh, where he also won in February. Hold-up style means he’ll need the gaps. Although stablemate Master Of The Seas was below form on softer ground last time at Ascot, he was short-headed out in the 2000 Guineas on good to firm earlier in the year.
Support team
Following last week’s Order Of Australia setback, Aidan O’Brien relies on hardwood 1000 Guineas heroine Mother Earth, who will be having the ninth G1 run of a campaign in which she also tasted top-level success in France. She should be fine on fast ground (second in Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland last year) and can never be overlooked. She ran better than it looks with a fast closing sectional last time at Ascot. Irish compatriot Pearls Galore has been second in consecutive G1s (behind Space Blues last time); prominent run style a plus, draw is a minus. Japan’s Dubai Turf runner-up Vin De Garde is worth a look at a massive price.
Home comforts
Home-court advantage means the Cal-based runners cannot be discounted. On recent evidence, there isn’t that much between the closer Mo Forza, a standing dish in Californian turf races, and front-running Shoemaker Mile winner Smooth Like Strait. The latter was compromised by a pace battle when they last met. Chad Brown, who won this with Uni two years ago, saddles another G1-winning mare in frontrunner Blowout. Like Uni, she won the First Lady at Keeneland last time out.
LONGINES TURF
European record: 23 wins from 37 races (62.2%)
Europe generally expects to win this – it took an above-average U.S. turf horse to deny a below-average European team in 2019 at Santa Anita when Bricks And Mortar, the subsequent Horse of the Year, justified strong favouritism. Normal service resumed last year as Tarnawa beat Magical and visitors filled four of the first six places; European horses have won 15 of the last 20 runnings.
Star turn
Strong favourite on both sides of the Atlantic, Tarnawa is out to repeat last year’s victory under Irish champion Colin Keane, who looks destined to become a superstar of the jockey ranks. Her entire season has been geared around a campaign in the second half of the year, and, if anything, her reputation has been bolstered by defeats in the Irish Champion Stakes (made world #1 St Mark’s Basilica pull out the stops over an inadequate distance) and the Arc (would surely have won on better ground). While she clearly had a hard race in Paris, Dermot Weld says she is showing no ill-effects. More of a potential issue, perhaps, is the ground – much firmer here than Keeneland – and an even shorter straight. She came wide and late last year, and will have to do so again from gate 13 of 14. She does, though, have bundles of talent and a brilliant turn of foot.
Support team
Although Tarnawa is a cut above, the Godolphin pair of Yibir and Walton Street also have valuable North American success to their names, albeit in rather less exalted company. There is an odds discrepancy here, with the morning line favouring Canadian International winner Walton Street but British bookies preferring Belmont winner Yibir, perhaps owing to William Buick’s presence on the latter. The demands of this specific test aren’t entirely certain to suit this quirky soul (gelded, wears a hood) as he needs every inch of 1m4f in Europe. Walton Street looked to have improved in Dubai and hasn’t been far behind the likes of Saudi Cup winner Mishriff and Arc hero Torquator Tasso.
Deutsches Derby winner Sisfahan will probably be overlooked, but he showed a nice turn of foot to win his Classic; he was only a length behind Torquator Tasso at Baden-Baden and is said to like faster ground, which would make him a rarity among German-based horses. Highly rated 3-year-old filly Teona finally came good in the Prix Vermeille; she’s progressive and likes fast ground but this may be a tad sharp. Aidan O’Brien has won this six times but neither Japan nor Broome have been setting the world alight. Ditto his other two on the also-eligible list.
Home comforts
Nothing in what Americans refer to as the ‘marathon’ division has been scary – and the Andre Fabre-trained Talismanic was no world beater and he managed to score here in 2017, the last time the BC rolled into town. Main opposition comes from the usual source in Chad Brown, whose number one is 4-time stakes winner Domestic Spending. A son of star miler Kingman, he is unproven at this 1m4f trip but, while he is trained thousands of miles away in New York, the 4-year-old showed his liking for Del Mar in a hot renewal of the G1 Hollywood Derby in 2020.