With the 38th Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic being run at Del Mar a week tomorrow (November 6), Todd Sidor discusses some important issues and looks at the likely contenders.
Is winning the Classic easier for front runners?
Generally, winning any race is easier for a front runner if the horse has the mettle to hang on to the finish because, unless the other horses are rating just off the leader, they have to contend with traffic and horses backing up on them before they make their run.
Horses closing from off the pace also often end up running a much greater distance than the leader, circling the field if they are unable to secure passage through the field.
That said, in the last ten years, five horses have wired the field in the Classic from the first to the final call: Fort Larned (2012); Bayern (2014); American Pharoah (2015); Gun Runner (2017) and Authentic (2020). In the previous 26 editions, only two horses led from start to finish - Black Tie Affair (1991) and Ghostzapper (2004).
The race has been run in California six times in the last ten years - five at Santa Anita and one at Del Mar. On three of those occasions, horses have won coming from off the pace, and three have led all the way.
Does a prep race matter?
Traditional prep races occur three to six weeks out from a race. American Pharoah, Arrogate and Gun Runner all won the Classic having prepped in races between nine and 11 weeks before the Breeders’ Cup, all at Saratoga.
In 2015, American Pharoah was a runner-up to Keen Ice in the Travers Stakes for his only loss of the year. His connections considered retirement but thought better of it and entered him in the Classic at Keeneland that year, which he won in track record time to complete the first and only ‘Grand Slam’ - the Triple Crown and the Classic in the same year.
In 2016, Arrogate came off a track record-setting performance in the Travers,cracking the 2-minute barrier and winning by 13½ lengths. In the Classic at Santa Anita, he beat dual Horse of the Year California Chrome by half a length. Gun Runner similarly won the Whitney Stakes and the Woodward Stakes and then delivered a 2¼-length win over Collected at Del Mar.
However, most Classic winners have had prep races four to six weeks out. The only other exception is Invasor, who after his win in the 2006 Whitney Stakes in early August was supposed to run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. However, those plans changed when the colt developed a fever. As a result, Invasor would enter the Classic having not raced in nearly three months. He came back without any prep and won.
Do you need to win your prep race to win the Classic?
No - as Geir Stabell wrote on this site on October 24. Just as some winners of the Kentucky Derby and other big races have not won their final prep races, many Classic winners lost the race prior to the Classic. Just last year, eventual Horse of the Year Authentic lost to Swiss Skydiver by a neck in a scintillating Preakness Stakes in the second fastest time in race’s 146-year history.
The previous year Vino Rosso came in second by disqualification in the Jockey Club Gold Cup before winning the Classic by 4¼ lengths. In 2012, Fort Larned finished third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup before heading west to win the Classic. In 2010, Blame was runner-up in the Jockey Club Gold Cup before capturing the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Older Male Championship.
However, winning your last race before the Breeders’ Cup does not hurt, as Classic winners Mucho Macho Man, Bayern, Arrogate, Gun Runner and Accelerate showed.
Does home advantage really matter?
Yes and no. Generally speaking, when the Breeders’ Cup is held east of the Mississippi, West Coast horses can thrive as much as their East Coast counterparts. East Coast horses moving west are not so successful unless they have had a race out west.
In the last ten years, West Coast-based Authentic, Accelerate and American Pharoah all won on tracks east of the Mississippi. Of their East Coast counterparts, Mucho Macho Man prepped for the 2013 Classic in the Awesome Again Stakes, and Vino Rosso won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita before his Classic win. Fort Larned and Gun Runner are the exceptions.
Is this a tough race to win for females?
The Classic is the top competitive dirt race in North America. It is tough for any horse to win. That said, fillies have tried and only one has done it.
In the last 11 years, three have tried, with one succeeding - Zenyatta, who won the 2009 edition on the synthetic Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita. The following year she lost by a head on dirt at Churchill Downs to Blame.
In 2011, eventual Horse of the Year Havre de Grace took on the boys in the Classic, finishing fourth. Eight years later, three-time ten-furlong winner Elate also finished fourth. While few have tried it recently, they have had respectable showings every time.
The early entries
Art Collector
Bernardini - Distorted Legacy, by Distorted Humor
TRC world rank 41
Trainer Bill Mott has Art Collector looking like a masterpiece for owner Bruce Lunsford with victories in three stakes races in a row, including the G1 Woodward, in which he ran his career best Beyer speed figure of 107 against a decent field. The question is whether he wants ten furlongs. The last time he ran beyond nine was in the 2020 Preakness, where he finished a well-beaten fourth, ten lengths behind the winner. However, judging by his pedigree, he should have no problem staying the distance.
Art Collector has won his last three races with Luis Saez, who is committed to Godolphin’s Essential Quality in the race, so the Breeders Cup’s all-time winningest jockey, Mike Smith, will take the irons for the first time on him.
Essential Quality
Tapit - Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
TRC world rank 4
The deserved second choice in the race and favorite for the Three-Year Old Male Championship, the Belmont and Travers winner is entering the race without a more closely spaced prep than he has had for previous major races. This could be a positive or a negative. Either trainer Brad Cox has extra confidence in him, believing he has matured and can fire his best race without a prep, or the Travers took so much out of him that his connections do not know if he could recover from a prep in time to run his best race in the Classic.
In the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes, some saw the performance as mediocre after his strong Belmont run. However, his impressive Travers win silenced those critics. After all, his final quarter in the Belmont of 24⅗ seconds was faster than Secretariat’s. One possibility is that this horse toys with his competition on the front end and only runs as well as he has to.
Express Train
Union Rags - I’m a Flake, by Mineshaft
TRC world rank 215
A multiple Graded stakes winner, he is hard to figure out. His last stakes win was in the G2 San Diego Handicap, where he laid off the lead in second and then flew home late. However, in the G1 Pacific Classic, he seemed to have nothing in the tank. He did run a strong second to Idol in the Santa Anita Handicap earlier in the year. However, with all the quality speed in this race, it is hard to see him contending.
Hot Rod Charlie
Oxbow - Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
TRC world rank 11
It would be nice to see trainer Doug O’Neill’s sophomore standout win a race like the G2 Louisiana Derby again with the horse not the jockey the subject of post-race discussions. Disqualified from the G1 Haskell Invitational after finishing first for cutting off Midnight Bourbon, Flavien Prat pushed Midnight Bourbon wide coming out of the far turn just as his chief competition was starting to make his run in the Pennsylvania Derby. After a brief objection, Hot Rod Charlie stayed up to earn his first G1 win.
There is no doubt this colt is very talented, but he has yet to secure a win against a field of this quality. Another possible point of interest is the fact that his first three races were at Del Mar and he lost all of them.
Idol
Curlin - Marion Ravenwood, by AP Indy
TRC world rank 565
His big win came in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap over a nice field of stakes winners. However, after that, he suffered a minor injury and took time off to recover. Trainer Richard Baltas ran him in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes, where he finished sixth.
A late bloomer, his first three races were at Churchill Downs at the end of his 3-year old season where he won his maiden and an allowance race. He then placed in the G2 San Antonio Stakes and the G2 San Pasqual Stakes before being entered in the Big Cap for owners CRK Stables. He should move forward off his Awesome Again run. The question is how much.
Knicks Go
Paynter - Kosmo’s Buddy, by Outflanker
TRC world rank 8
Brad Cox’s other entry is poised to win the Older Male Championship with a strong performance here. He is the race favorite. He is a need-the-lead type who enjoys running his competition off their feet. In his four wins this year, all at nine furlongs, he has delivered Beyer figures of 108, 113, 111 and 104. The big question is whether he can carry that speed another furlong, and whether his quality is enough to contend with the significant forwardly placed speed in this race from other entrants, particularly the Kentucky Derby winner.
Max Player
Honor Code - Fools in Love, by Not For Love
TRC world rank 92
His last two wins have been at the North American classic distance of ten furlongs, with his most impressive a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, run for the first time at Saratoga. The son of Honor Code seems to be flourishing under Steve Asmussen’s tutelage, having also taken the G2 Suburban Stakes at Belmont Park.
Asmussen has entered horses in the Classic four times with wins with Curlin (2007) and Gun Runner (2017). In 2008, on synthetic, Curlin finished fourth to Raven’s Pass, and in 2010 Haynesfield was tenth to Blame.
Medina Spirit
Protonico - Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed
TRC world rank 20
This year Bob Baffert won his seventh Kentucky Derby in the second fastest time ever by one of his charges, and the fastest Kentucky Derby run in May since Monarchos ran the second fastest Kentucky Derby two decades ago. Slotted as the favorite in the Awesome Again after his Shared Belief Stakes win, Medina Spirit has appeared to be a new improved version. Heavily campaigned in the spring, he delivered a career-best performance, winning by five lengths with a 107 Beyer. Never having won any of his four races without an easy lead, the big question is whether he takes on Knicks Go from the start or his connections believe he has matured enough to lay just off the pace.
Stilleto Boy
Shackleford - Rosie’s Ransom, by Marquetry
TRC world rank 1107
Many are dismissing his performance when runner-up in the Awesome Again Stakes, but he did win the Iowa Derby over Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock this summer. He then shipped to Del Mar, where he tried turf without much success, before running third to two G1 winners in the Shared Belief, the other being Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World. He is getting in much deeper water with the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but he has shown talent, gradually moving forward in each of his recent starts on dirt.
Tripoli
Kitten’s Joy - Love Train, by Tapit
TRC world rank 179
The Pacific Classic winner was coming off a career-best performance when he entered the Awesome Again and could only manage fourth. Tripoli is the latest older male sensation from trainer John Sadler and owner Hironis Racing, who have had success with 2018 Champion Older Male and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Accelerate, Santa Anita Handicap winners Combatant and Gift Box, and Pacific Classic winner Higher Power, who finished third in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic. A fan of the Del Mar surface, where he has never run worse than second, he should move forward off his last start.
Todd Sidor, an attorney by trade, has produced equine law seminars, and has been a member of racing partnerships for a number of years. His more than two decades’ passion and respect for the sport of horseracing will always make him, first and foremost, a racing enthusiast with a penchant for racing history.