The concept of British Champions Day at Ascot has had its critics – and still does. Some people would like to see more of a Breeders’ Cup format in which 2-year-old racing is incorporated; others would like to bring the fixture forward in the calendar, in the hope of mitigating the effects of the autumn climate on the ground.
These arguments may have merit to some extent, but a rounded appraisal of what this fixture has delivered since inaugurated in 2011 – coincidentally the first year of TRC Global Rankings data – can come to only one conclusion: British Champions Day works.
This year, even the weather has delivered. The additional blessing of a sounder surface promises results in which more experts will place store – even if the previous renewals on a soft surface have hardly lacked quality, as this caption of TRC Computer Race Ratings for the main event of the day shows:
CHAMPION STAKES
According to the TRC Global Rankings of the field before the race, this year’s Champion Stakes cast is one of the strongest in race history – there are two horses in the world’s Top Ten and three in the Top 25. Mind you, we said that also about the Arc and an upset followed.
The focus of the race is a rematch between the first two finishers in the G1 King George here at Ascot, Adayar and MISHRIFF. Let’s see where the two stack up going into this race:
The first four in order of our rankings can also be found in the equivalent order in most ante-post betting lists. The question is, should Mishriff be favoured to beat Adayar, given their previous meeting?
After the G1 King George, we ranked Adayar world #4 above Mishriff at world #6. Since then, however, Adayar could finish only fourth in the Arc behind then-world #44 Torquator Tasso. Some form experts assert that certain soft ground results should be completely ignored, but the times at ParisLongchamp strongly suggest the ground wasn’t desperate, and a ranking system cannot cherry pick certain races to invest full belief in while completely ignoring others!
The changes to the rankings the TRC algorithm made after the Arc were just light and shade – not a wholesale revision. Adayar, who had dropped down the standings a bit due to his absence since the July 24 King George, went from #7 to #11 for his defeat. And it must be remembered that the King George third, Love, and fourth, Broome, had also been defeated by lower-ranked rivals. The computer had Adayar just a shade too high on the balance of probabilities, and it made the revision.
Mishriff had headed in the opposite direction. He was wildly impressive in the G1 Juddmonte International at York in August, taking his form to a new level of 129 on our scale. If he confirms that by winning here, he could well be the new world #1 – subject to current world #2 Palace Pier’s performance in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (see below).
For his part, Mishriff stayed a mile and a half well enough to beat the two Japanese-trained stars Chrono Genesis and Loves Only You in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. Of course, the King George was run on a much stiffer track at Ascot, and Adayar’s jockey, William Buick, made full use of his mount’s stamina. A similar tactic will be very much on the cards here – particularly as the last-named colt is running at the bottom of his distance range.
Ranked third in this field is last year’s winner no less, Addeybb. He seems to thrive on very soft going when taking on the world’s absolute elite and he doesn’t deserve to be ranked as highly as the two above him on class, though he is very much a match on toughness.
One of three horses trained by world #11 William Haggas in this field, he has been trained specially for the race after being swept aside by current world #1 St Mark’s Basilica in the G1 Eclipse Stakes at Sandown in July. It doesn’t seem that relevant he was a place ahead of Mishriff there for we are guided more by other performances that suggest neither were at their best on that occasion.
With Torquator Tasso in mind, could there be another upstart in this global quality showdown? Well, yes, the obvious candidate is Addeybb’s stablemate, Dubai Honour. We are able to rank him only #71 on the basis of consecutive victories in the G2 Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville and the G2 Prix Dollar at ParisLongchamp, in which he earned a World’s Best Racehorse Rating (the sport’s de facto official rating) of 116. On the same scale, the TRC computer went 117, as can be seen in the TRC column in the table above. But this belies the ease of his victories, and he looks to have the cruising speed to cope with the best. Can he do it against horses who will inject a sterner middle pace?
The others – notably #132 Al Aasy and #385 Sealiway – do have upset potential because they have flashed ability in excess of where we rank them.
QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES
This race often serves to cement a championship among European milers, but it can also produce the odd surprising result. Here are the winners of the ten renewals during the TRC Global Rankings era:
The par for this race is about three points less than for the Champion Stakes, but it still requires a globally significant performance to win. In fact, if you look at the composition of the field, according to the TRC Global Rankings, there is more strength in depth after the first four in the hierarchy.
Here are this year’s contenders in the same format as the Champion Stakes field:
Once again, TRC Global Rankings follow the ante-post reckonings of the bookmakers. The 1-2-3 according to our hierarchy have the first, second and third shortest odds. This order should persist until the race is off, but it will be interesting to see whether odds of around 6/4 about PALACE PIER lengthen a little.
After all, there has been some disquiet among analysts all season about the authority of the former world #1’s performances.
This lack of confidence may be misplaced. The son of world #5 sire Kingman is inclined to save a bit for himself, but he did finish as if he was a little sore when winning the G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in June over this same straight mile. There should be enough cushion for him and this is his chance to seal a great career.
But Baaeed will be no pushover. Another top horse from the Haggas camp, he leapt up these classifications without winning a top race until the G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp. As with Palace Pier, he did not please everyone in style of victory, and runner-up Order Of Australia has done nothing for the form since. But the son of world #6 Sea The Stars had been winning by a space and has TRC Computer Race Ratings of 125 and 122 from only three tries in Group company. You don’t see that a lot.
Can he topple Palace Pier and earn himself a championship? Could he even acceded to world #1 in the process.
There is a strong female representation, with G1 Sussex Stakes heroine Alcohol Free toping them, and other G1 winners Lady Bowthorpe and Mother Earth providing potentially more than a supporting cast. And we must not forget last year’s winner, The Revenant, who has slipped to a ranking outside the Top 100 but should put that right with a bold showing here.
TRC GLOBAL RANKINGS FOR THE OTHER GROUP RACES ON BRITISH CHAMPIONS DAY
Long Distance Cup
#18 Trueshan, #31 Stradivarius, #90 Baron Samedi, #617 Hamish, #1029 Master Of Reality, #1038 The Mediterranean
Sprint
#117 Art Power, #200 Gustavus Weston, #203 Kinross, #219 Rohaan, #281 Vadream, #320 Glen Shiel, #366 Happy Romance, #381 Creative Force, #465 Dragon Symbol, #615 Thunder Moon, #624 Happy Power, #774 Last Empire, #1011 Highfield Princess, #1197 Ainsdale, #1283 Brando, #1436 Nando Parrado, #1592 Keep Busy, #1629 Ventura Diamond
Filly & Mare
#25 Snowfall, #584 Tribal Craft, #827 Eshaada, #1142 Albaflora, #1396 La Joconde, #1440 Lady Hayes, #1760 Mystery Angel.