Five brilliant 3-year-olds populate the TRC Global Rankings Top Ten horses at the moment. European #1 trainer Charlie Appleby trains two of them, the Derby winners Adayar and Hurricane Lane, former world #1 trainer Aidan O’Brien trains another two, dual Classic winners St Mark’s Basilica and Snowfall, while one is handled by Brad Cox in the USA, Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hero Essential Quality.
The rankings have never been so stacked with potential at this time of year. There is massive anticipation as to what these young horses could do.
Currently, the world #1 overall remains 4-year-old Palace Pier. But we will repeat: After missing the G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood with a blood disorder, the John Gosden-trained colt is surely living on borrowed time at the top. These younger horses have too much ability; at least one of them looks booked to eclipse the sitting world leader in the weeks and months to come.
But which one? How would you bet? Let’s evaluate the five main contenders mentioned, plus look at the claims of another one who is rising fast.
World #3 St Mark’s Basilica parlayed his easy victories in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) and G1 Prix de Jockey Club (French Derby) into a dominating performance in the G1 Coral Eclipse Stakes at Sandown.
He beat #6 Mishriff (third) and #14 Addeybb (second) there, so he has to be ranked well above that pair by the computer, in line with our principles. And the computer moved him up to a rating of 127.
World #4 Adayar received one of the biggest rankings rises for a horse entering the top five in our history. The reason was that he received a stellar TRC Computer Race Rating of 129 for his victory in the G1 King George And Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. There he beat #6 Mishriff and #12 Love by 1¾ lengths, which, on fast ground over a mile and a half at Ascot, translates to six points because this is the average end-of-career difference between horses separated by this margin at the head of affairs under these conditions.
Note that St Mark’s Basilica received a rating of 127 for his Eclipse win – 2lb inferior to Adayar – even though he finished two lengths further ahead of Mishriff. The reason the computer prefers the King George in terms of a performance is its confidence in the rating of 4-year-old filly Love, who now has four 122s and a 121 and the 6-length gap to the rest of a good field. The Irish-trained colt is ranked ahead of Adayar because he has a deeper CV and thus the computer’s confidence in his rating is higher.
Appleby has many options for Adayar’s next race. It behoves the Godolphin trainer to adopt a portfolio approach with both him and another son of Frankel, the G1 Irish Derby (TRC 124) and G1 Grand Prix de Paris (TRC 125) winner #9 Hurricane Lane.
The big chestnut could be anything after those two dominating, powerful wins, but he has to be ranked behind Adayar for now because he was only third to his stablemate in the Derby at Epsom – so far his only defeat.
Which of the two horses is better? The probability is with Adayar now with a 129 on the board, but Hurricane Lane has the more speed and gives Appleby the chance of dropping him in trip for one of the Champion Stakes in England or Ireland. Could there by a showdown with St Mark’s Basilica?
The computer slots star U.S. three-year-old Essential Quality at #7. He could be higher than this if we had the depth of form lines that connect the European-trained horses to those round the world, through the exploits of pan-global winners like Addeybb and Mishriff, whom they have beaten. So, his slot this high in the rankings is a massive compliment – especially as we have had him here for some time. (Note that the only 3-year-old trained in the U.S. to reach world #1 remains American Pharoah.)
Essential Quality’s gritty victory in the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday should put him spot on for the G1 Travers Stakes there on August 28. The hard-fought win over Keepmeinmind is unlikely to alter his position in these standings when they are updated on Tuesday, but he emerged from the race with credit, showing real battling qualities after a wide trip, and a win in the Travers could see a significant rise.
That leaves the amazing world #10 Snowfall – perhaps the most improved runner of the year. Nothing special as a juvenile, the daughter of world #2 stallion Deep Impact has stepped up massively this year to run away with the G3 Musidora Stakes and the G1 Oaks at Epsom (by 16 lengths) and G1 Irish Oaks at The Curragh (by 8½ lengths):
The TRC computer needs more evidence as to where this remarkable filly stands in the global pecking order. It is extremely likely she is one of the world’s best horses because it is almost impossible to be an imposter after twice setting record-breaking winning margins in a Classic, but there is not, as yet, evidence to consider her superior to some other horses with proven elite status against better opposition. So, the principle is she is placed in the middle of the possible rankings she could be slotted to, as this tries to minimise the likely error caused by her future ranking when further evidence comes in.
Snowfall will probably head for the G1 Yorkshire Oaks at York in August, when it is not certain she will meet deeper opposition. But, at least this race is open to older horses, so the potential exists to find out more about her.
Finally, the contender mentioned at the top of this article who could reach the Top Ten herself one day? That is G1 Sussex Stakes winner Alcohol Free, whose victory over #19 Poetic Flare at Goodwood won’t be incorporated into the rankings until the next release.
Some readers like to anticipate where the computer will place a horse and have gained an advanced understanding of the mechanics of the rankings as a result. Where do you think the computer will place her?