Tomorrow’s Belmont Stakes appeals as the most interesting of the three legs of the 2021 U.S. Triple Crown.
There may be no Medina Spirit, but this only gives the race breathing space from the episode that is likely to lead to the colt’s disqualification from the Kentucky Derby. Instead, we can focus on a fascinating clash between the Preakness winner Rombauer, last year’s champion juvenile Essential Quality and the impressive G1 Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World, with five other contenders adding extra sparkle.
ESSENTIAL QUALITY is our highest-ranked contender by far, sitting as high as #11 in the world. We rate him this highly because he has tasted defeat just once, when fourth to Medina Spirit in the Derby, in which he raced wide and was anything but disgraced. Before that, he had extended his fine Keeneland record when beating Highly Motivated a neck in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes.
It was at that same Kentucky venue where the son of current world #2 dirt sire Tapit proved himself the best horse of his generation last year. He beat Hot Rod Charlie by only ¾ length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but the narrow margin belied the authority with which it was gained and added to his thumping 3¼-length defeat of the subsequent Juvenile third Keepmeinmind in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity over the same course and distance. It was enough to earn the Brad Cox-trained colt a championship.
When Essential Quality returned for his 3-year-old debut in the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, much was expected of him. He beat six opponents in great style, not having to perform to his best TRC Computer Race Rating of 123 but not far short of it. It was actually a more decisive victory than his Blue Grass Stakes next.
And it is this downward trend of performances that has many thinking we have seen the best of this colt already. Will he follow many before him in failing to back up an enervating campaign as a juvenile? It is certainly possible, but that reckons without the skills of his trainer Brad Cox, who has freshened him for this bid to redeem his reputation.
While Essential Quality failed to live up to his previous status in the Derby, at least no convincing replacement for him emerged from that blanket finish. But the same turned out not to be true when the Triple Crown circus moved to Pimlico. There, the unheralded Rombauer emerged from obscurity with a bang, powering home from off the pace to beat Midnight Bourbon by 3½ lengths, with a bedraggled Medina Spirit beaten a further two lengths in third.
Visually, this was everything you would wish to see of a Classic winner, but the TRC algorithm rated the performance 118. Our numbers are sceptical in the light of Rombauer’s previous form: He had met Essential Quality twice and been thrashed by him twice, so, mathematically at least, the Preakness win served to boost his rival’s reputation as well as his own.
Now, it could easily be that Rombauer is a new horse and that TRC 118 proves an underestimate of his talent. Even if it doesn’t, this rating is close to the average required to win an average Belmont:
The median performance rating in the race is shown in the box. Most years, a horse doesn’t need to be an American Pharoah or Tiz The Law to win this, and having the stamina for a mile and a half is a big deal on its own.
And this last proviso surely should build confidence in Rock Your World. If Essential Quality’s sire Tapit has produced three Belmont winners already, Rock Your World’s sire, Candy Ride, could easily have done the same thing. And this colt is out of a mare by Belmont winner Empire Maker.
Rock Your World is unexposed, trained by a highly skilful man in John Sadler and poised to run the race of his life here. And he had no chance after exchanging bumps with Essential Quality in the Kentucky Derby. But he did not make any inroads late and beat only two home. Should that be simply forgotten? Or should he have shown a bit more tenacity there? Either way, he could bounce back.
Hot Rod Charlie surely is deserving of plenty of respect. He has been there and got the t-shirt, as they say. Second in the Juvenile on his Graded stakes debut, he added a first win in black-type races when beating Preakness runner-up Midnight Bourbon by two lengths in the G2 Louisiana Derby. Then he was a place in front of Essential Quality in the Derby. What a tough colt.
Perhaps the most interesting, unexposed horse is Known Agenda. He’s by Curlin, sire of 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice. Trainer Todd Pletcher had him spot on to win the G1 Florida Derby. Not surprisingly given his pedigree, he won that in the style of a stayer and was quietly fancied to run a big race at Churchill Downs. He finished ninth, lost in the shuffle early and getting behind, but he kept on well in the closing stages. He could step up big here.