The best race of Dubai World Cup night is the G1 Longines Dubai Sheema Classic over a mile and a half on turf. International racing fans yearn for this kind of showdown, for it does not just bring horses together, but continents.
The previous 22 runnings of the Sheema have seen three Japanese-trained horses succeed, from limited representation: Stay Gold in 2001, Heart’s Cry in 2006 and the mare Gentildonna in 2014. The names of the first two are significant because both have gone to be cornerstones of the Japanese breeding industry.
Can you imagine if the same horses had been trained in Britain? Nowadays, strong stayers like these two would more likely have been asked to cover National Hunt stock. Generally speaking, horses who thrive in the top middle-distance races are not better stayers than those who run over shorter distances, they are simply better horses full stop. This is a clear trend that exists within the data.
CHRONO GENESIS, the primary Japanese challenger this year, is a mare rated very highly by TRC Global Rankings. And, as a half-sister to G1 Hong Kong Cup winner Normcore, she is a priceless breeding prospect, being by an Arc winner in Bago, while Normcore is by a King George winner in Harbinger – both top-notch European G1 winners at 12f.
This is a strong field, however. Let’s see how the runners stack up by TRC Global Rankings:
Rankings for G1 Longines Dubai Sheema Classic
Meydan, 1m4f, Turf
(Note that Channel Maker is ranked above Loves Only You because the latter’s best effort was victory in the
2019 Yushun Himba, which has decayed because it is not recent.)
Even though our numbers have long suggested that Japanese horses are underrated internationally (Almond Eye was our 2020 World Champion - not Ghaiyyath), we make it a closer fight between Chrono Genesis and G1 Saudi Cup winner Mishriff. We don’t make any changes to the figures because of weights carried because research tells us the system predicts fewer winners when you do this.
It’s a great move to switch Mishriff back to turf so that he can take on a mile and a half, and he could reveal further improvement here too. We would not like to call this one, even though Mishriff’s wide gate counts against him.
Chrono Genesis can produce a very strong finish and is suited by a fast pace; she can be a little vulnerable on occasions if this does not transpire. Tactics will be fascinating here.
Mogul cannot be ruled out. Our computer puts his two best efforts short of the top two because our numbers are conservative about giving him full credit for a three-length win in the G1 Hong Kong Vase.
This is because he had appeared to establish a lower baseline than this, and more evidence is needed by the computer before rating him in the elite 120s. But the system cannot account for the examples of horses by Galileo trained by Aidan O’Brien tending to jump up to a new level. So this race will tell us a lot more about him.
It is hard to like Channel Maker here. He simply does not appear good enough and carries his head at an awkward angle under pressure. Even though we cannot rank him yet, Walton Street is more attractive, but he is in with the big players here for the first time.
The value pick is another Japanese challenger, Loves Only You. She came back to form when winning the G2 Kyoto Kinen recently (TRC 116) and we have a rating of TRC 118 on her 2019 win in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), as mentioned above. After that, her appearances have been a bit spotty, but this is the fifth race in her most recent preparation and she figures to be in the shape of her life. Double-figure odds are attractive.