Some of the finest horses around are converging on Sha Tin on Sunday for one of the world’s great racedays, the $12 million Hong Kong International Races. But, according to the TRC Global Rankings, the raiders, for all their quality, have it all to do against an array of powerful local runners, as race analyst James Willoughby reports in this race-by-race assessment.
G1 HONG KONG VASE (1m 4f)
Ranked contenders: #59 Exultant, #63 Mogul
Japanese-trained runners finished 1-2-4 last year with no fewer than seven European-trained horses behind, including Anthony Van Dyck, Prince Of Arran, Young Rascal and Aspetar. This underlines the tremendous quality of Japanese racing at present and is a reason to credit the finish of third-placed finisher then, #59 EXULTANT, who heads our figures in this.
Exultant has won three time since, including the G1 Standard Chartered Champions & Chater Cup over course and distance in May. His two runs since November have been very good, notably when beaten under a length conceding 5lb to Furore (Columbus County third, Ho Ho Khan fifth, Chefano eighth) in the traditional prep for this, the G2 Jockey Club Cup.
The only other ranked contender in a disappointing turnout is #63 Mogul. The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt has an uneven profile, picking up the bulk of his ranking points from winning the G1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp in September. We have that run as clearly the best in the field (we have the margin as much greater than most rating systems) as runner-up In Swoop went on to finish second in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Since then, however, Mogul finished only fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf – a dull effort.
So, we make this close between one horse who is consistent and proven under the conditions and another who has suggested he has superior class but has to prove it. TRC Global Rankings for Horses attempts to solve the equation, rather than pretend that a horse’s best effort alone can define it.
G1 HONG KONG SPRINT (6f)
Ranked contenders: #27 Classique Legend, #91 Hot King Prawn, #279 Danon Smash, #377 Voyage Warrior, #451 Wishful Thinker
This was the only race of last year’s series not to have been won by a Japanese invader! #91 Hot King Prawn finished second, beaten a neck by Beat The Clock. #451 Wishful Thinker (sixth) is back for another crack, as is #279 DanonSmash (eighth) and the unranked Rattan (11th).
Hot King Prawn underlined what a good sprinter he is by winning the trial for this, the G2 Jockey Club Sprint, by a length from Computer Patch and Rattan, followed by Voyage Warrior, Big Party, Fat Turtle, Stronger, Amazing Star, Wishful Thinker and Big Time Baby. Voyage Warrior (fourth) did not have a clear run and could do a lot better here.
But #27 CLASSIQUE LEGEND towers over this group. The 5-year-old has been switched from Australian trainer Les Bridge to similarly experienced local handler Caspar Fownes, who we make world #77 trainer. Note that TRC Global Rankings weighs the number of Group and Graded races won by the opportunity to win them, so we have Hong Kong-based entities much higher than other systems, which merely pile up wins and places.
Classique Legend’s win in the valuable Everest at Randwick last time counts as one of the best performances by any horse globally this year because of the strength of the field going in and his clear-cut margin (in a very fast time). The Everest counts towards our rankings, even though it does not have Group status, because we count races worthy of G1 status as just that.
The flying grey was heavily backed to do it too, but a measure of caution is warranted in this spot. First, while he is going round a right-handed bend again, his style of running makes trouble more likely in a big field. He had 11 rivals in the Everest but 13 here, which doesn’t sound much of a difference. However, if you look at incidence of trouble-in-running, there is an exponential increase (technically speaking, the probability is sigmoidal) as field-sizes increase and these are new surroundings for Classique Legend – most of his races have been at Randwick.
Perhaps Hot King Prawn is the percentage call, then, but Classique Legend is so far clear on our numbers that we have to stay loyal and hope the gaps appear.
G1 HONG KONG MILE (1m)
Ranked contenders: #16 Golden Sixty, #19 Beauty Generation, #52 Order Of Australia, #103 Romanised, #158 Admire Mars, #279 Southern Legend, #341 Ka Ying Star
This is one of the best races of the year and a ton of ranking points are on the table. Last year’s #158 Admire Mars continued the Japanese dominance in this race last year. While it’s no surprise the chestnut has found life more difficult back at home since, but he did run third to Gran Alegria and Indy Champ in the G1 Mile Championship at Hanshin last time. (The brilliant winner is the only horse to have beaten our world #1 Almond Eye in 2020.)
We have seen how the strands of form involving Japanese runners have influenced Group races run across the world in recent years, so nobody here will be at all surprised to see Admire Mars go in again. But he will need another career-best effort because this is a stronger field.
All eyes here will be on Hong Kong’s horse #16 GOLDEN SIXTY who is a home-grown runner, very much “one of their own” who has come through the system locally with flying colours. He has posted some marvellous finishing splits – despite appearing to idle in front or win without coming under pressure. The top 10 finishing sectionals, as recorded on the data-rich website of the Hong Kong Jockey Club, are shown in the table:
The data table in Figure 1 shows the raw split for each successive quarter (s1, s2, s3, s4) together with the finishing speed percentage in the rightmost column. This conditions for the state of the going by expressing the speed of the final quarter as a ratio with the average speed for the whole race.
Golden Sixtyhas clocked the second- and third-fastest such splits. It is also worth noting the presence in the table of Mile contenders Southern Legend, Admire Mars, Waikuku and BeautyGeneration. You better be able to accelerate to do well in Hong Kong!
This is the acid test for Golden Sixty. He is the highest-ranked horse in the world not to have won a race ratified by the IFHA as a Group 1, but you may be able to spot an anomaly in the ‘G1 Wins’ column of our latest rankings, headed by the retiring Japanese superstar Almond Eye:
What is that ‘1’ doing in the ‘G1 wins’ column of Golden Sixty’s row? Well, that has been there since March, when we graded the Hong Kong Derby as a G1 due to its quality in 2020. That now looks a decent call, as he has romped through the G2 and G3 landscape since. But there is no denying this is a step up, a more competitive scenario. Equally, it is not fair to knock him because he hasn’t done it. Few horses can quicken like him and this is the hallmark of a G1 winner.
In the G2 Jockey Club Mile, Golden Sixty annexed the prep in typical style. Notice that he was getting 5lb from Southern Legend (third) who was beaten under two lengths. Similarly, in the G2 Sha Tin Trophy, he received weight from Ka Ying Star (3lb, second), Southern Legend (5lb, third) and Beauty Generation (10lb, sixth). We still have the last-named legend at #19 but it is always tough to gauge the true rate of decline of a former elite runner. Could there be one last hurrah in the eight-year-old?
The opposite problem also confronts our system, with #52 Order Of Australia having shot up the rankings following his shock G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile win. He would be much higher than this if racehorses were infallible machines, but we need to see that the Keeneland win wasn’t partially the gift of some of his bedraggled rivals.
G1 HONG KONG CUP (1m 2f)
Ranked contenders: #5 Magical, #46 Skalleti, #125 Danon Premium, #150 Win Bright, #205 Furore, #377 Normcore, #420 Time Warp
Seven of the eight contenders own a TRC Global Ranking at present, meaning this is the race with the most all-round strength-in-depth.
Last year, #150 Win Bright defeated an Aidan O’Brien-trained filly in Magic Wand. This year, the Japanese runner confronts a better one in world #5 Magical. Back home, #125 Danon Premium has better form on his day which is why he is ranked higher. He had the look of a global superstar in the making at one point but has levelled off to a standing below that and doesn’t seem so focussed in his races. Still, there is precious little wrong with his fourth to Almond Eye, Fierement and Chrono Genesis in the G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn) last up. Those rivals are all world-class runners.
#46 Skalleti is the improver here, but there is a rub. He has shot up the rankings while winning a G3 at Deauville and a G2 at Longchamp and padded his CV still further when second to world #20 Addeybb in the G1 Champion Stakes at Ascot. But all of those efforts have come with plenty of give in the ground. Can he adapt to a livelier surface?
#5 MAGICAL ran another sound race when second to Tarnawa in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf at Keeneland. To many, she was below her best, but on our figures she beat all the horses she is ranked higher than and lost to one she is ranked lower than. Simples!
So, there is no reason to assert she is necessarily over the top for the season yet. And if that appeared to be the case, her trainer Aidan O’Brien would not be risking her, given she is a priceless paddocks commodity.