Road to the Kentucky Derby: how the trials compare on TRC Global Rankings

The table shows how each of the races has fared over the past three years, and what RPR should be required to win the next running in each case, according to the TRC Global Rankings algorithm.

Rank

Race

Grade

Distance

Course

Month

Winner RPR

Ist 3 RPR

Expected RPR

Our Grade

Winner

RPR

1

Santa Anita Derby

1

9

Santa Anita

April

118.7

112.2

118.3

1

GORMLEY

116

2

Arkanas Derby

1

9

Oaklawn

April

118.5

110.8

117.5

1

CLASSIC EMPIRE116

3

Florida Derby

1

9

Gulfstream

April

117.0

112.1

117.4

1

ALWAYS DREAMING

115

4

Rebel

2

8.5

Oaklawn

March

116.7

111.8

116.6

2

MALAGACY

111

5

San Felipe

2

8.5

Santa Anita

March

116.8

110.6

116.5

2

MASTERY

121

6

Wood Memorial

2

9

Aqueduct

April

114.2

111.4

115.3

2

IRISH WAR CRY

118

7

UAE Derby

2

9.5

Meydan

March

117.5

112.9

114.9

2

THUNDER SNOW

115

8

Blue Grass

2

9

Keeneland

April

114.5

110.0

114.8

2

IRAP115

9

Louisiana Derby

2

9

Fair Grounds

March

113.8

110.4

114.8

2

GIRVIN

110

10

Fountain Of Youth

2

8.5

Gulfstream

March

114.2

109.2

114.4

2

GUNNEVERA

116

11

Robert B Lewis

3

8.5

Santa Anita

Feb

114.0

108.7

113.9

2*

ROYAL MO

112

12

Holy Bull

2

8.5

Gulfstream

Feb

114.5

106.8

113.6

2

IRISH WAR CRY

117

13

Sunland Derby

3

9

Sunland Park

March

114.2

104.8

112.6

2*

HENCE

114

14

Tampa Bay Derby

2

8.5

Tampa Bay

March

112.8

106.5

112.5

2

TAPWRIT

111

15

Los Alamitos Futurity

1

8.5

Los Alamitos

Dec

111.0

107.5

111.6

2*

MASTERY

114

16

Southwest

3

8.5

Oaklawn

Feb

111.9

104.6

111.2

3

ONE LINER

114

17

Gotham

3

8.5

Aqueduct

March

111.3

105.0

110.9

3

J BOYS ECHO

113

18

Illinois Derby

3

9

Hawthorne

April

110.2

105.9

110.6

3

MULTIPLIER102

19

Risen Star

2

8.5

Fair Grounds

Feb

108.7

106.9

110.5

3*

GIRVIN

109

20

San Vicente

2

7

Santa Anita

Feb

108.8

104.9

109.3

3*

ILIAD

112

21

Withers

3

8.5

Aqueduct

Feb

107.6

102.9

108.1

3

EL AREEB

110

22

Jerome

3

8.3

Aqueduct

Jan

108.8

101.1

108.0

3

EL AREEB

110

23

Lexington

3

8.5

Keeneland

April

108.0

101.8

107.8

3

SENIOR INVESTMENT107

24

Swale

2

7

Gulfstream

Feb

107.8

101.6

107.6

3*

FAVOURABLE OUTCOME

108

25

Sham

3

8

Santa Anita

Jan

107.7

102.5

107.4

3

GORMLEY

116

26

Lecomte

3

8.3

Fair Grounds

Jan

108.3

100.7

107.2

3

GUEST SUITE

108

27

Sam F Davis

3

8.5

Tampa Bay Downs

Feb

102.8

100.1

104.3

3

McCRAKEN

112

*Indicates where a race should ideally be regraded according to the TRC Global Rankings algorithm

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