Road to the Kentucky Derby: how the trials compare on TRC Global Rankings

The table shows how each of the races has fared over the past three years, and what RPR should be required to win the next running in each case, according to the TRC Global Rankings algorithm.

Rank

Race

Grade

Distance

Course

Month

Winner RPR

1st 3 RPR

Expected RPR

Our grade

Winner

RPR

1

Santa Anita Derby

1

9

Santa Anita

April

118.7

112.2

118.3

1

 

 

2

Arkansas Derby

1

9

Oaklawn Park

April

118.5

110.8

117.5

1

 

 

3

Florida Derby

1

9

Gulfstream Park

April

117.0

112.1

117.4

1

 

 

4

Rebel Stakes

2

8.5

Oaklawn Park

March

116.7

111.8

116.6

2

 

 

5

San Felipe Stakes

2

8.5

Santa Anita

March

116.8

110.6

116.5

2

 

 

6

Wood Memorial

2

9

Aqueduct

April

114.2

111.4

115.3

2

 

 

7

Blue Grass Stakes

2

9

Keeneland

April

114.5

110.0

114.8

2

 

 

8

Louisiana Derby

2

9

Fair Grounds

April

113.8

110.4

114.8

2

 

 

9

Fountain Of Youth

2

8.5

Gulfstream Park

March

114.2

109.2

114.4

2

 

 

10

Robert B Lewis

3

8.5

Santa Anita

Feb

114.0

108.7

113.9

2*

ROYAL MO

112

11

Holy Bull

2

8.5

Gulfstream Park

Feb

114.5

106.8

113.6

2

IRISH WAR CRY

114

12

Sunland Derby

3

9

Sunland Park

March

114.2

104.8

112.6

2*

 

 

13

Tampa Bay Derby

2

8.5

Tampa Bay Downs

March

112.8

106.5

112.5

2

 

 

14

Los Alam' Futurity

1

8.5

Los Alamitos

Dec

111.0

107.5

111.6

2*

MASTERY

114

15

Southwest Stakes

3

8.5

Oaklawn Park

Feb

111.9

104.6

111.2

3

 

 

16

Gotham Stakes

3

8.5

Aqueduct

March

111.3

105.0

110.9

3

 

 

17

Illinois Derby

3

9

Hawthorne

April

110.2

105.9

110.6

3

 

 

18

Risen Star Stakes

2

8.5

Fair Grounds

Feb

108.7

106.9

110.5

3*

 

 

19

San Vicente Stakes

2

7

Santa Anita

Feb

108.8

104.9

109.3

3*

ILIAD

112

20

Withers Stakes

3

8.5

Aqueduct

Feb

107.6

102.9

108.1

3

EL AREEB

110

21

Jerome Stakes

3

8.3

Aqueduct

Jan

108.8

101.1

108.0

3

EL AREEB

110

22

Lexington Stakes

3

8.5

Keeneland

April

108.0

101.8

107.8

3

 

 

23

Swale Stakes

2

7

Gulfstream Park

Jan

107.8

101.6

107.6

3*

FAVORABLE OUTCOME

118

24

Sham Stakes

3

8

Santa Anita

Jan

107.7

102.5

107.4

3

GORMLEY

116

25

Lecomte Stakes

3

8.3

Fair Grounds

Jan

108.3

100.7

107.2

3

GUEST SUITE

108

26

Bay Shore Stakes

3

7

Aqueduct

April

104.5

101.4

105.6

3

 

27

Sam F Davis

3

8.5

Tampa Bay Downs

Feb

102.8

100.1

104.3

3

McCRAKEN

112

 

           

*Indicates where a race should ideally be regraded according to the TRC Global Rankings algorithm

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