The 2020 Kentucky Derby: was it Authentic? Or was it misleading?
On the face of it, the sharply improved effort by Authentic was nothing that extraordinary, given his brilliant trainer Bob Baffert has won the Derby six times now. It’s just the horse seemed to find vigour in the strength of his finish apparently lacking to this point. Can he do it again in the Preakness, which wraps up this strangely ordered pandemic Triple Crown series?
That quality will have to be present in Authentic because he meets a very good horse who is improving like himself. Yes, in this historic test round Pimlico, he will be attended all the way by Art Collector, a colt who went missing from the Derby trail at the 11th hour after striking into himself.
TOP CHOICE Art Collector
Authentic had won three Graded Stakes out of four tries prior to Churchill Downs. In the latest, he had staggered home all out in the Haskell at Monmouth Park to win the nine-furlong G1 by a nose from one of his opponents here, Ny Traffic.
On that basis, it was hard to see him relishing a fast-run ten furlongs in the Derby. But what he did there was a revelation. And it looks very much like Baffert has worked the oracle again.
Authentic broke in a tangle from an outside post and had to be used to make the lead. Then, new rider John Velazquez sent him through searing fractions: a half in 46.41, six furlongs in 1:10.23. So, when hot favourite Tiz The Law loomed up turning for home, the writing looked on the wall; surely Authentic would fold and a Triple Crown would still be on the cards for the Belmont winner?
Surely not! With his head at characteristic awkward angle and his scratchy action still turning itself over with fury, Authentic somehow kept going. And he stopped the clock at 2:00.61 – probably the sixth-fastest-time** in history (Proud Clarion’s time of 2:00 3/5 in 1967 was measured to the nearest elapsed fifth and thus was likely slower).
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** Author's edit: Of course, I am culpable of a rather meaningless reference to Authentic's winning time here - for two reasons (see comments section).
First: raw times are meaningless with no reference to the conditions under which they were recorded. Second: on average, three-year-olds run faster in September than they do in May.
It would have been better to write: "..which, considering the speed of the surface and discounting the winner having had four months more to mature than other winners of the race, was an improved effort from Authentic, worth a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 (four points more than his previous best).
"In the context of the visual impression he created in the Haskell, it is surprising he could stretch his speed to 10 furlongs and run so fast."
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But ART COLLECTOR is the pick against Authentic for one reason: he arguably has a better piece of form.
Art Collector’s win in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes is an outstanding effort. He gave 5lb to the filly Swiss Skydiver – who tries her luck against him again here – and thrashed her by three and a half lengths, going away. Prior to that Keeneland race, Swiss Skydiver had won the G2 Santa Anita Oaks by four lengths and after it she won the G1 Alabama at Saratoga by three and a half.
Not only that, but Art Collector had them strung out behind. Third-placed Rushie (beaten more than eight lengths) has since won the G2 Pat Day Mile, while sixth-placed Mr Big News (another Preakness aspirant) was more than ten lengths behind, yet subsequently only three lengths behind Authentic when third in the Derby.
The injury that kept Art Collector out of the Derby was only minor and here is his chance to prove he belongs among the elite of his generation.
VALUE PICK Pneumatic
A son of world #9 sire Uncle Mo, PNEUMATIC looks a very big price at 25/1 or more with European bookmakers heading into Preakness day. He already has form to suggest he could be on the premises here: when third to Maxfield in the G3 Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs in May, he was only narrowly behind Ny Traffic, who ran Authentic close in the Haskell.
But the chances are Pneumatic has improved since then. He went on to finish only fourth to Tiz The Law in the Belmont (two and a half lengths behind the third, Max Player, who renews rivalry here) but not every horse acts at Big Sandy. Moreover, a break looked to have done him good when he reappeared in the listed Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth, and he bolted up as expected.
There’s more to that race than meets the eye. While it appeared a race in which Pneumatic only had to reproduce his Matt Winn running to succeed, the times suggest something more: they went 24.17 – 24.11 – 24.52 – 25.31 – 6.65 (pro-rated 26.60) on a slow, holding surface untypical for Monmouth. And the final time of 1:44.76 for eight and a half furlongs stacks up well with other races on the card.
Pneumatic’s time can be interpreted a few different ways because conditions may not have been constant across that 12-race August 15 card. Equibase Speed Figures, for instance, awarded Pneumatic 113 compared with Authentic’s 109 for winning the Derby on a much faster track. And, while you may well be dubious about this comparison, Pneumatic is nearly 20 times the price!
What we can rely on is that Pneumatic is a well-bred, improving horse who isn’t exposed and comes from a powerful stable in Steve Asmussen’s. He’s well worth a wager at very big odds.