The horse who could be world champion by the end of the year

Just so easy: It’s Contrail in a canter in the Japanese St Leger trial at Chukyo on Sunday. Photo: JRA

The talk in Europe is of Enable, Love, Magical and Ghaiyyath. In North America, attention is focused on Improbable, Maximum Security, Authentic and Tiz The Law. But before long a horse who could be better than any of them may be about to sweep through and take over as #1 in the TRC Global Horse Rankings.

It will surely require nothing less than victory from Enable in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday to hold off the Japanese Derby winner Contrail. The superstar from the East is the new world #4 after winning with ridiculous ease at Chukyo last Sunday. Turning for home in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai, the country’s St Leger trial, he was cruising on the inside in midfield on a tight rein, as per usual. The video below is in Japanese, but you won’t need a translation to understand what’s going on as jockey Yu Fukunaga lets Contrail (No. 2, with a white cap) canter into the lead and do little more than walk home over the final furlong.

The big one, the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St Leger), just four weeks away, is surely a formality for the son of Deep Impact, who will then become the third Japanese colts’ Triple Crown winner of the century, after his sire in 2005 and Orfevre in 2011.

He gains 47pts and rises eight places from #12 in the latest horse rankings. 

But, so much else was going on last week.

The defeat of Maximum Security in the G1 Awesome Again at Santa Anita on Saturday sees Bob Baffert’s charge drop from #2 to #5 and places a serious question mark over his Breeders’ Cup Classic candidacy; meanwhile, his victorious stablemate, Improbable, jumps 20 places to #15 and is one of the fastest risers in the world. He seems a reformed character, on the face of it, although there may be a chance he could spit out the dummy when the heat is on. 

And what about Hong Kong Derby winner Golden Sixty? His defeat of Beauty Generation & Co. - albeit in receipt of weight - in the G3 Celebration Cup at Sha Tin on Sunday (see video above) counts as his best effort yet, by our algorithm and he rises to #38 while maintaining his unbeaten record over there.

In Europe, Kameko cracked the top 50 after possibly being unsuited by the way he was campaigned after his 2000 Guineas win in June. He won the G2 Joel Stakes back at Newmarket last Friday under a penalty, enough to see him rise from #132 to #42. Third-placed Benbatl returns to the rankings (he was excluded because of the 200-day rule governing inactive horses) just six places lower than his conqueror at #48.

Shifting to the other categories, it is time to recognise Uncle Mo. Finally, he returns to the top ten sires, where he started when his stallion career commenced with such a rush. If you click on his name in the table and sort by ‘Date’, it is easy to find that G2 Zenyatta Stakes winner Harvest Moon and G3 Remington Park Oaks scorer Envoutante were the two gals responsible for his rise to #9 overall and #3 on dirt.

Flavien Prat has ever been the #1 U.S. rider in the rankings, but he is not far away now after rising from #8 to #6 after riding three Graded winners last week. Only Joel Rosario is above him, and the gap is just three points.

Prat is some way from challenging for the world #1 slot currently occupied by Frankie Dettori.

Only five different riders have been US #1 in the six-year history of the rankings:

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