Prior to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday, the dual winner Enable was ranked #1 in the world in the TRC Global Horse Rankings. Not only that, but she had a clear lead. With a glittering CV already established, another win – or even just a place – would cement her status as world champion for 2020.
This is how the TRC Global Rankings looked before the race, alongside the PMU starting price:
PRE-RACE RANKINGS ORDER
Including starting odds
#1 Enable 1384pts; 9/10F
#8 Stradivarius 1257pts; 54/10
#13 Persian King 1224pts; 63/10
#38 Sottsass 1127pts; 73/10
#156 Way To Paris 1004pts; 46/1
#179 Raabihah 991pts; 13/1
#281 Deirdre 947pts; 79/1
#365 GoldTrip 920pts; 33/1
#384 In Swoop 912pts; 10/1
NA Chachnak 81/1
NA RoyalJulius 103/1
Despite heavy going, similar to that on which Enable was defeated by Waldgeist in the previous renewal of the great race, the public’s estimate of not only her chance, but also that of her stablemate Stradivarius, Persian King and, to a lesser extent, Sottsass lined up with the rankings.
Among the remainder of the 11-horse field – weakened at the 11th hour when four horses trained by Aidan O’Brien were forced to withdraw because of contaminated feed – the rankings had a higher opinion of Way To Paris than the public, and the public had a higher opinion of Raabihah and In Swoop than the rankings. The rankings liked Way To Paris because his CV is deep and consistent which is a cornerstone of rankings maths; the public liked Raabihah and In Swoop because they were unexposed and, for one reason or another, promised to run career-best races, which the rankings obviously could not foresee.
In the event, heavy going and a slow pace shaped the result. Third last year, Sottsass rediscovered his best form under a good ride from world #42 rider Cristian Demuro, In Swoop made the projected improvement, and PersianKing finished where the rankings and the public had forecast - third.
For their part, the pair trained by world #1 John Gosden disappointed. Enable suffered some interference, while the pace and going may have been against the stayer Stradivarius.
This is the finishing order, and how it affected the rankings:
HOW THEY FINISHED
1st Sottsass +141pts; #5 from #38
2nd In Swoop +196pts; #55 from #384
3rd Persian King +2pts; #14 from #13
4th GoldTrip +46pts; #244 from #365
5th Raabihah +10pts; #169 from #179
6th Enable -82pts; stays #1
7th Stradivarius -47pts; #18 from #8
8th Deirdre -1pts; #294 from #281
9th Way To Paris -29pts; #222 from #156
10th RoyalJulius NA
11th Chachnak NA
TRC Global Rankings are driven by each horse’s rankings index, expressed in points. Horses gain or lose points according to how they perform compared with pre-race expectation; the magnitude of the change is therefore proportional to the statistical impact of each new race entering the database.
But, this isn’t an exercise in playing with numbers. TRC Global Rankings harvests the rich, established mathematics of rankings, as used in many settings outside the sport, such as internet search engines, to find the order of the world’s best horses that is the most internally consistent with results. We favour certain races, such as recent races and strongly competitive ones, with the intention that the ranking that emerges is a principled hierarchy of talent similar to that dictated by logic.
The Arc result, for example, induces the rankings to find the highest spot for the winner, Sottsass, that doesn’t offend the logic of his past results. Last time, he finished behind #2 Magical and #3 Ghaiyyath in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes, but neither were present here. So, he sits just below them at #5.
Plenty of evidence compels the rankings to view Enable as better than Magical – and by extension Ghaiyyath, even though she was beaten by that one earlier in the season – but now not by anywhere near as was the case, as this latest piece of evidence reduced confidence. So, she retains her #1 spot – just – but everything is to play for now.
There is a whole raft of horses now who could eclipse her for the world champion spot. And this makes the rest of the season even more compelling.
With the result of the Arc integrated, here is how the horses involved stand now:
POST-RACE RANKINGS ORDER
#1 Enable (6th) 1302pts
#5 Sottsass (1st) 1268pts
#14 Persian King (3rd) 1226pts
#18 Stradivarius (7th) 1210pts
#55 In Swoop (2nd) 1108pts
#169 Raabihah (5th) 1001pts
#222 Way To Paris (9th) 975pts
#244 GoldTrip (4th) 966pts
#281 Deirdre (8th) 946pts
NA Chachnak (10th)
NA RoyalJulius (11th)
The system would have had problems with Stradivarius because his form beyond a mile and a half appears to be a lot stronger, but the inherent class of races in the staying division is also weaker, which we know because it is easier for a mile-and-a-half horse to adapt to two miles than the reverse. In terms of the ranking of Stradivarius, it is open to a lot of flux were he to run again, even though he has won a tremendous 14 Group races.
It will be interesting to see whether the new ranking given to the unexposed pair In Swoop and Raabihah works out well in future races.