Latest news on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary’s Global Rankings after a sequence of unexpected results – plus a couple of major flops – on a big Classic weekend on both sides of the Atlantic
Frankly, this is quite a tricky one to write. Because a series of relatively unexpected Classic results on both sides of the Atlantic produced barely a ripple on the waters of Thoroughbred Racing Commentary’s Global Rankings.
So let’s tell it like it is, starting with the Kentucky Derby, where 18-1 shot Mystik Dan (#30 from #282, +356pt) just held on in one of the tightest finishes in the race’s 150-year history in front of a tidy 156,710 crowd at Churchill Downs.
After breaking alertly from gate three, Mystik Dan benefited from an excellent rails-skimming ride from Brian Hernandez and sat behind a strong early pace. The gaps came – just about – and he was in the right place at the right time, holding on gamely from the closers to score by a nose from Sierra Leone (#19 from #23, +6pt), with Japanese visitor Forever Young (#54 from #63, +44pt) acquitting himself with immense credit in third.
However, both the second and (especially) the third can be counted as unlucky, as they both had to be switched wide round the home turn and travelled considerably further than the winner.
No foul claim
What is more, they did each other few favours – or perhaps, to be entirely precise, Sierra Leone did Forever Young few favours by lugging in on him for the final furlong. Forever Young stayed as straight as he could, and should have been promoted to second, though his rider did not lodge a ‘foul claim’ (objection).
Mystik Dan’s ranking status is anchored by his having only the G3 Southwest Stakes (admittedly by eight lengths) on his CV before the Kentucky Derby – plus he was well beaten into third on his most recent previous outing behind likely Preakness Stakes favorite Muth.
Mystik Dan is not a certain starter at Pimlico, though the Belmont – held over just 1m2f this year at Saratoga – should be an informative contest.
Meanwhile, Kentucky flop Fierceness (#36 from #18, -44pt) pays a heavy price for a downbeat display at Churchill Downs.
Historic double
Mystic Dan is a son of Goldencents (#73 from #140, +70pt among dirt sires). He was completing a historic double for Kenny McPeek (#204 from #333, +80pt) and Brian Hernandez (#77 from #108, +57pt), who 24 hours earlier landed the Kentucky Oaks with front-running Thorpedo Anna (#56 from #332, +275pt), who scored by 4¾ lengths on a sloppy track. She arrived onn the back of a four-length victory in the G2 Fantasy at Oaklawn.
This was only the fourth time any trainer has completed the Oaks-Derby double, while Hernandez is the eighth jockey to achieve such a notable feat.
Elsewhere at Churchill Downs, Breeders’ Cup Distaff heroine Idiomatic re-enters the rankings at #12 after recording her fourth G1 win on her seasonal debut in the La Troienne. The five-year-old has won nine of her last ten starts.
Leading US turfer Program Trading also returns at #30 after beating Naval Power in the Turf Classic for his third G1 win, while First Mission (#37 from #113, +195pt) makes a big move with a comfortable G2 win in the Alysheba.
Dismal performance
And so to Newmarket, where we must start with the dismal performance of last year’s champion two-year-old, the much vaunted City Of Troy in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, the first British Classic of the season.
Having seemed barely to have grown an inch, the son of Justify led for four furlongs before dropping out in a style reminiscent of his Aidan O’Brien-trained stablemate Auguste Rodin 12 months earlier.
Auguste Rodin came back to win two Derbies and a Breeders’ Cup Turf and, for the time being, City Of Troy remains on course for the Derby – but his re-entry into the rankings at #124 is purely down to his juvenile form.
By the way, with not a single winner in the UK yet, world-beating trainer Aidan O’Brien (stays at #2, -44pt) isn’t having the most productive of starts to the European season – with the result that Chad Brown (stays at #3) is breathing down his neck on the trainer’s rankings.
Godolphin’s Charlie Appleby still leads the way on the world trainers’ list – and he was responsible for the hugely impressive 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech.
Ability to quicken
As disappointing as 4-6 favourite City Of Troy might have been, the winner looks a really talented horse, belying his 16-1 starting price to finish much as he Rosallion by a length and a half.
Blessed with a notable ability to quicken, the unbeaten son of Dubawi looks sure to make his presence felt in the season’s major mile races. But as he had an unconventional prep with all three previous outings coming in minor events on the all-weather, none of them eligible for rankings points, he can enter the charts only at #77. Expect a massive jump if and when he repeats the dose.
The 1000 Guineas, the fillies’ equivalent, resulted in a close finish with the first five covered by no more than a length as the race went to 28-1 chance Elmalka, who climbs to #118.
In Japan, last year’s champion juvenile Jantar Mantar (#17 from #87, +221pt) leaps into the Top 20 after an emphatic victory in the G1 NHK Mile Cup at Tokyo racecourse. Having failed to last home over two furlongs more in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), this was a fine effort to beat Oka Sho runner-up Ascoli Piceno by 2½ lengths.
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• Unlike traditional methods of racehorse rankings, TRC Global Rankings are a measure of an individual’s level of achievement over a rolling three-year period, providing a principled hierarchy of the leading horses, jockeys, trainers, owners and sires using statistical learning techniques. Racehorse rankings can be compared to similar exercises in other sports, like the golf’s world rankings or the ATP rankings in tennis.
They are formulated from the last three years of races we consider Group or Graded class all over the world and update automatically each week according to the quality of a horse’s performances and their recency, taking into account how races work out.