The 14 races that make up Breeders’ Cup weekend – worth a total of $14 million – may not be “world championships” - no prescribed race or series of races can define the best horse in the world. But that’s not to say the horse we rank #1 on the planet at the end of 2021 won’t be running.
If their performances are good enough, Essential Quality, Knicks Go, Tarnawa, Jackie’s Warrior and even Hot Rod Charlie are candidates to usurp our sitting world champion, St Mark’s Basilica, who has departed the scene for the sheds of Coolmore.
In this preview, we will look at how the three races that the five prospective champions line up in, the Classic, the Turf and the Sprint.
LONGINES CLASSIC
We will start each preview with a look at what history can tell us about the height of the bar for each race. For, our potential champions do not just have to clear this bar, they need to soar over it.
Look at the above list and you can see a clear divide between six good horses who peaked on the day (TRC Computer Race Rating 123 and under) and four great horses who brought already strong CVs into the race (TRC 127 and higher).
Now, when we look at the 2021 field, there are conceivably four horses for whom a Classic would be the crowning glory of their careers, rather than just a peak.
At the time of writing, the betting order with many bookmakers closely follows the order described by TRC Global Rankings – with the exception that #5 Knicks Go is favoured over #4 ESSENTIAL QUALITY. Both these horses have great CVs; the former needs to prove he can last out a strongly-run mile and a quarter, while the latter needs to avoid a lazy streak that has threatened to derail his fine run from time to time.
Nevertheless, the G1 Juvenile, G1 Belmont and G1 Travers winner has an amazing record and a win here would seal a Hall of Fame-type career – and a possible world #1 status. We will see.
#11 Hot Rod Charlie is very good and gave the top-ranked horse here a huge fright in the Belmont. He carries his head a little awkwardly under pressure but is game. #21 Medina Spirit might very well garner a mixed response, should he win, given the negative headline surrounding the Kentucky Derby winner’s trainer in 2021. #45 Art Collector is improving and rates an interesting betting proposition.
LONGINES TURF
That European middle-distance form on turf is stronger than that in the U.S. is clearly shown in the two groups of horses who have won the Breeders’ Cup Turf:
The five winners who earned a TRC performance rating of 124+ were all trained in Europe, whereas the three U.S.-trained winners appear in the five lowest-rated winners, including the bottom two.
Being trained in Europe doesn’t cause a horse to win, of course, but is simply correlated with the probability it has run in one of the strongest races. Let’s see how the picture looks for this year’s renewal:
As with the Breeders’ Cup Mile - in which #22 Space Blues heads the hierarchy – last year’s winner, #8 TARNAWA, stands head and shoulders above her rivals, according to our figures.
Yet she is odds against with the bookmakers. Her ante-post price reflects the potential problems with a large field around tight turns at Del Mar. Yes, the Dermot Weld-trained filly hasn’t posted a figure to match the 128 she earned when beating a group including the stargazing #312 ChannelMaker at Keeneland, but she has a host of other figures that suggest she is plenty good enough.
Apart from her, the rest of the field are not up to scratch – based only on what they have done. But there is a clutch of potential improvers, headed by #8 Yibir, #91 Gufo, #105 Walton Street and #193 Teona. TRC Global Rankings probably underestimates the last-named daughter of world #5 turf sire Sea The Stars on account of her being lightly raced with uneven form. Which Teona will we get here? Maybe even one we have not seen before.
QATAR RACING SPRINT
As with the other two races in this article, there is a clear division among previous winners of the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint between those who confirmed their dominance and others who peaked on the day:
This year’s race contains a standout horse in #9 JACKIE’S WARRIOR, who cold even threaten the global #1 spot if he were to win this race by a wide margin. Let’s look at the computer’s performance figures:
The ante-post betting very much follows TRC Global Rankings again here - #9 JACKIE’S WARRIOR is a short-prized favourite. Other rating systems have it much closer between him and the rest of the field, in particular the fast-improving #74 Dr. Schivel, who is the clear and obvious likely winner – only if the favourite disappoints. Behind him, the reality is that this just isn’t a great race by the standard of the sprint.
How can be add further weight to this notion? Well, seeing as though this is a test of raw speed, the prestigious and battle-tested Beyer Speed Figures (accessed via DRF.com) should add clarity to the situation. Jackie’s Warrior has Beyers of 110 and 107 this year, which are up to the standard of the race, but the best figure among the rest is Firenze Fire at 105. Dr Schivel’s best number is 102 – claiming horses sometimes run faster than that – so there is no point pretending this is a vintage renewal.
The Beyers tally very well with TRC Computer Race Ratings and the ante-post odds. But Jackie’s Warrior has had a hard season and Dr Schivel is improving at the right time. It’s a very interesting race in prospect.